Special Military Operation, A Week in Review. The Desperate Struggle of the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Kyiv has not yet deployed reserves on such a scale along the entire front line.

Valery Gerasimov summarizes the spring and summer campaigns. Alexander Syrskyi takes a gamble.

General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and Commander of the Joint Forces of the Special Military Operation, stated at a meeting of the Ministry of Defense that since March of this year, the Russian military has liberated more than 3,500 square kilometers of territory and 149 settlements. He summarized the results of the spring and summer campaigns.

The commander of the joint forces stated that the Russian military has currently liberated 99.7% of the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic. The Ukrainian Armed Forces still control less than 60 square kilometers of area. The Russian military has controlled 79% of the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic, 74% of the Zaporozhye region, and 76% of the Kherson region.

Valery Gerasimov pointed out that an analysis of the situation of the Ukrainian army showed that the enemy has concentrated all its forces to slow down the Russian offensive, at great cost. As a result, the Ukrainian armed forces have been forced to move their most combat-ready units from one crisis direction to another to "plug the gaps."

"Strategic initiative is entirely in the hands of the Russian military," Gerasimov said, "the joint forces will continue to complete the tasks of the special military operation through offensive operations."

The Overheating Theory

This week, the situation on the front can be described with a financial term "overheating." Fighting is taking place along the entire contact line. However, neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian armed forces have achieved significant breakthroughs or victories. At the same time, both sides have deployed significant reserve forces.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of several settlements. But these are currently only tactical victories. However, it can be noted that the Russian military has begun a strong attack on Kupiansk. There, the Russian military has advanced towards the city center. The "East" and "Center" groups have simultaneously broken through multiple sections in Dnipropetrovsk region, which is extremely unfavorable for the Ukrainians.

In fact, a large-scale encounter battle is currently taking place in the special military operation area. Both the Russian and Ukrainian command centers are increasing their bets, continuously deploying new reserve forces. However, for Kyiv, this strategy is a dead end. The Russian military has far more personnel and equipment reserves.

As per the "overheating theory" in economics, after uncontrolled growth, there will be a decline, recession, and eventually stagnation. Kyiv's military operations are currently on this trajectory. It is difficult to say why the Ukrainian military and political leadership has started to rush to deploy all available forces into combat.

It may be influenced by the overall situation on the contact line. For example, in just August, the Russian military carried out several actions that were problematic for the Ukrainian armed forces. These included advancing dozens of kilometers along the Kucherov Yar-Zolotoy Kolodiz line.

An alternative explanation for the current escalation of fighting is that Kyiv is trying to demonstrate some meaningful achievements on the front. This is a need to show Western European countries and domestic citizens against the background of peace negotiations. Obviously, Ukraine may hold elections soon. Zelenskyy hopes to win in the elections.

One of his rivals is the former commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, Valery Zaluzhnyi. According to leaked media reports, Zaluzhnyi has secretly formed a campaign team. Led by General Sergey Nayev. It is worth noting that the latter suddenly left the Ukrainian armed forces. In late July, he resigned from his position as commander of the Donbas operational-tactical group.

The Ukrainian military and political leadership has also previously "put everything on the line," concentrating almost all important reserves and deploying them into combat. However, that was for individual strategic directions. For example, when the Ukrainian armed forces invaded the Kursk region, this was the case.

But now the situation is completely different. The Ukrainians are strengthening their deployment across the entire contact line while trying to maintain constant pressure.

Even in these "forgotten" fronts like Zaporozhye and Kherson. And it should be understood that this does not mean a large-scale counteroffensive. The fighting is taking place at the tactical level.

The impression is that the Ukrainian armed forces headquarters wants to achieve several victories that may not be important from a military perspective but are suitable for media propaganda. For example, reclaiming villages from the Russians, breaking through the Russian defense lines, occupying positions, etc.

The situation of the special military operation is unique, and the outcome is difficult to predict. But Kyiv is on the brink of failure. As mentioned earlier, its reserves are much fewer than those of the Russian military. Moreover, considering the large number of Ukrainian armed forces spread along thousands of kilometers of front lines, the Ukrainian command will face extremely serious problems if the situation deteriorates.

Moreover, since the beginning of the large-scale encounter battle, the Russian military has not "retreated" anywhere so far. More importantly, they continue to advance forward. Although the speed is not as fast as in July and early August.

Kupiansk Breakthrough

Over the past week, the Russian military entered the western part of Kupiansk and is advancing toward the city center. Previously, the "West" group successfully encircled the city and advanced to the village of Sobolevka.

A few kilometers south of this village is the important Chuguyev-Kupiansk highway. This highway is the supply line for the entire Ukrainian armed forces group as well as for the city of Kupiansk and the area west of the Osokol River.

However, the Russian side has not yet been able to cut off this "lifeline." To reach there, it is necessary to cross a forested area. But this forest is heavily defended. Additionally, the Ukrainian command has deployed a large number of garrison forces of Kupiansk to this area.

On Wednesday, August 27, the units of the "West" group went on the offensive. They advanced along two parallel streets: May Street and Constitution Street.

Additionally, private residential areas have already been controlled by the Russian military. The "West" group advances cautiously. The flanks of the attacking forces are adjacent to the western bank of the Osokol River. This means that the enemy cannot conduct a counterattack.

The task of the "West" group is clear: to advance to the intersection near the city bus station. This will be able to cut off the route of the Ukrainian armed forces to the Osokol River bridge.

Dnipropetrovsk: Paying the Price for "Advancement"

Meanwhile, the "Center" and "East" groups have successively broken through the Ukrainian defenses and entered the Dnipropetrovsk region and Zaporozhye region. Moreover, in the Temiryevo area, the "East" group's axis of attack is the administrative boundary between the Dnipropetrovsk region and the Zaporozhye region. The attack began from the "triple border area."

This latest penetration is the most dangerous for the Ukrainian armed forces. The Russian military has advanced only a few kilometers. This victory can be considered tactical. However, continuing the advance along the state boundary, we may cut off the supply route connecting the Pokrovsk in the Dnipropetrovsk region and the Gulyaipole in the Zaporozhye region. Then, the Ukrainian group in the Gulyaipole-Olekhov line would face significant problems.

All week long, the Ukrainian command has claimed to have re-established control over the Zeleny Gay village. And launched successful attacks on the Russian forces along the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region and the Donetsk region. There, the "narrow strip" formed a bulge extending westward.

However, any claims of victory by Kyiv have not been verified. Despite the considerable "advance" throughout the week. Meanwhile, the "Center" group set traps waiting for the enemy. And launched a sudden attack on the rear of the Ukrainian armed forces units advancing towards Zeleny Gay. As a result, the Russians liberated the village of Filiya.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7544948663781556775/

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