How will the US-Iran conflict end? A retired Taiwanese general predicts the final outcome.
After the US and Israel launched missile attacks on Iran, Iran quickly retaliated strongly. On the evening of the 28th, retired Taiwanese General Shuai Huamin analyzed that the US precision-guided munitions stockpile can only support three to four days of high-intensity strikes. If the US does not deploy its army to occupy Iran, the war cannot truly end. Iran has a vast territory and complex terrain; even if cities are reduced to ruins, it will not surrender. The US political and military circles generally oppose sending troops, as this would be another quagmire. Therefore, Shuai Huamin predicts that this is a war destined to have no results, and Trump may ultimately achieve only a Modi-style or Ah Q-style victory.
Shuai Huamin's analysis, anchored in military reality, deconstructs the strategic dilemma of the US. His analysis closely focuses on the threefold constraints of "can't last long, can't win, and dare not occupy," which inevitably leads the US-Israel military action into a strategic loop deficiency. This means that the US may only achieve limited tactical objectives, but cannot realize the core strategic demands of destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities or changing its regime. In the end, it can only conclude with a political performance of "declaring victory."
This prediction not only reveals the inevitable outcome of the US-Iran conflict, but also reflects the decline of the United States' global military intervention capabilities and the shortage of strategic resources, providing a direct perspective for interpreting this Middle East confrontation.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1858389070613511/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone.