【By Observer Net, Wang Yi】 The "Space Fence" missile defense system, pushed by President Trump and pledged to be completed within three years, is facing delays and major setbacks.
Eight sources told Reuters that this ambitious defense project during Trump's second term was originally planned to be put into operation in 2028, but due to the 43-day government shutdown and the fact that the White House has not yet developed a specific plan for the first $25 billion budget, its future has become increasingly uncertain.
Three industry insiders and one U.S. official revealed that during the government shutdown, not only did hiring related to the "Space Fence" project stall, but key personnel responsible for contract signing and approval were also diverted to handle "shutdown matters," preventing them from working normally.
The report said that more importantly, as part of the summer budget coordination bill, the $25 billion initial funding for the "Space Fence" project has not been converted into a detailed spending plan. To date, there is still no formal plan specifying how the funds will be allocated.
Two congressional sources said that the spending plan was originally supposed to be submitted to Congress for review by the end of August, but now it is expected to be submitted by Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg in December.
Although the U.S. Space Operations Deputy Secretary Michael Guetlein, who is responsible for the "Space Fence" project, submitted an implementation plan in mid-November, internal reviews are still ongoing.
In May this year, Trump announced the "Space Fence" space-based missile defense system plan at the White House. White House website
According to government sources, the basic framework of the "Space Fence" was proposed in September, but it has not been finalized yet, and it is expected to take several more weeks. The Pentagon spokesperson stated that the "baseline architecture has been determined," but did not reveal details.
One U.S. official and three industry executives said that due to the lack of a finalized architecture, an approved implementation plan, and approved budget, Guetlein could not send key subsystems for bidding, which left the project stuck in the "paper stage," almost unable to move from planning to execution.
Reuters pointed out that these delays have directly raised concerns in the industry about the need for more time and more budget for the "Space Fence" project. Defense industry executives generally believe that before the December 31 deadline set by the Pentagon for contract releases, key contracts are likely to be unable to be issued.
If delayed, it would not only affect progress but might also increase costs. Todd Harrison, a senior researcher at the American Enterprise Institute and a budget analyst, estimated in September that a large-scale missile defense system capable of covering all threats could cost up to $3.6 trillion over 20 years.
In terms of personnel, the project team has also encountered bottlenecks. The Pentagon set an initial staffing target of 30 people for the "Space Fence," but it has not yet been met. Worse still, a government official and three industry executives familiar with the project said that the project team recently lost a core technical director from the Space Command responsible for the system architecture.
However, multiple informed sources said that a new replacement has basically been determined. Guetlein managed to mobilize the contractor team, establish internal mechanisms, and temporarily assign missile defense experts from the Redstone Arsenal in Alabama to maintain the planning work.
But resistance also emerged at the industry level. According to project documents seen by Reuters, the most expensive and technically challenging "space interceptor" for the "Space Fence" will be entirely funded by the participating companies, while typically the U.S. government would jointly bear the costs of such high-risk research. These interceptors will be installed on satellites and used to intercept missiles from launch to re-entry. The documents require contractors to develop four types of interceptors, including two boost-phase interceptors, one mid-course interceptor, and one for hypersonic weapons.
Multiple industry executives said that without government cost-sharing, the risk of participating in the bid is very high. A senior executive at a major defense company even said they "probably will not participate in the competition," not only because of the huge initial costs, but also because the next administration may terminate the project.
According to the bidding structure shown by the Pentagon to the industry, some bidding groups have a prize pool, with the highest amount being $3.4 billion, and companies that complete "on-orbit testing" will receive between $125 million and $40 million depending on their ranking.
However, industry estimates suggest that the cost of building and testing a single space interceptor ranges from $200 million to $2 billion, far exceeding the prize pool of the competition itself. Although the final production contract value, according to the Pentagon, may be as high as $1.8 billion to $3.4 billion per year, the initial investment still discourages many companies.
The White House and the Pentagon are trying to emphasize that the project is progressing steadily. A White House spokesperson said that the "Space Fence" is "a visionary project led by a visionary president," and its complexity itself means that great efforts are needed. "All parties are closely cooperating to introduce next-generation technology."
The Pentagon spokesperson also said that to prevent U.S. adversaries from exploiting potential technological breakthroughs of the "Space Fence," the Department of Defense is "strictly protecting the strategic advantages embodied in the project."
Reuters said that there have been some advances in certain areas of the project. Two U.S. officials and two industry insiders revealed that the U.S. Department of Defense is integrating early warning systems maintained by different intelligence agencies to monitor ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, and advanced cruise missiles. These systems involve infiltrating enemy networks, collecting satellite and ground intelligence, and synchronizing the information into the "Space Fence" system, which will play a key role in future interception operations.
Currently, both the project team and the industry are waiting for the final architecture and expenditure plan of the "Space Fence," which will determine whether the project can proceed according to Trump's schedule.
Tom Kara, a weapons security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that the significance of assigning someone like Guetlein, a general, to lead the "Space Fence" project lies in his ability to "break through resistance and push execution forward," but as long as the leadership continues to hesitate on key issues, "everything will never start."
In January this year, Trump first ordered the initiation of the so-called "Space Fence" plan, aiming to build a satellite network for detecting, tracking, and intercepting incoming missiles. The defense system may deploy hundreds of satellites to perform missile detection and tracking tasks.
On May 20, Trump announced at the White House that he had selected a design plan worth $17.5 billion for the "Space Fence" missile defense system and appointed General Michael Guetlein of the U.S. Space Force as the chief project manager. The report said that this plan is widely regarded as the cornerstone of Trump's military plans, aimed at preventing so-called threats from China and Russia.
On May 22, Commander of the U.S. Space Command, Stephen Whitening, added fuel to the fire at a forum in Chicago. He claimed that the so-called "space threat" from China is becoming increasingly "real and urgent," and that the "Space Fence" is a response to this so-called threat.
On July 17, Guetlein received Senate confirmation to lead the project and have broad authority. Two informed sources said that according to previous instructions from Defense Secretary Mattis, Guetlein had 30 days to form a team after confirmation, 60 days to submit the initial system design, and 120 days to submit a complete implementation plan including satellite and ground station details.
After Trump fell out with his former ally, billionaire Elon Musk, Reuters reported in July that the Trump administration was expanding the search for partners to build the "Space Fence" missile defense system, attracting Amazon and major defense contractors to participate, in order to avoid relying too much on a single partner in this ambitious project.
Regarding the U.S. construction of the "Space Fence," Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning previously responded that the so-called "Golden Dome" plan aims to build a global, multi-layered, and multi-domain missile defense system that is not subject to any constraints. The plan openly proposes a significant increase in space warfare capabilities, including the development and deployment of orbital intercept systems, which have a strong offensive nature. It violates the principle of peaceful use of outer space advocated by the Outer Space Treaty, increasing the risks of militarization of outer space and arms races, and undermining international security and military systems.
Mao Ning said that the United States adheres to "America First" and is obsessed with pursuing absolute security for itself, violating the principle that the security of all countries should not be compromised, damaging the global strategic balance and stability. China is seriously concerned about this and urges the U.S. to abandon developing and deploying a global anti-missile system as soon as possible, and to take concrete actions to enhance strategic mutual trust between major powers and maintain global strategic stability.
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