【Text by Observer Net, Xiong Chaoran】With the arrival of the American autumn harvest season, soybean inventories are beginning to pile up. Government data shows that the new batch of American soybean exports have started, but there is currently no record of sales or shipments to China, which contrasts sharply with the 6.5 million tons that were booked at the same time last year.

"The overseas sales of the number one U.S. agricultural export have plummeted, and China's refusal to purchase American soybeans has dealt a 'devastating' blow to American farmers," reported the British Financial Times on September 27th. Over half of America's soybean exports go to China, which is the world's largest buyer. However, this year, due to ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, not a single grain of American soybean has been sold to the East, leading to overstocked warehouses and falling prices, making it difficult for farmers to make a living. On the other hand, China has turned to Brazil for record-breaking soybean purchases.

"We are in a hurry now," said Darin Johnson, president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association and a fourth-generation farmer, anxiously: "Even if we eventually reach an agreement with China, it will be too late for this harvest season."

Photo from the video of American farmers harvesting soybeans

Soybeans are mainly used as animal feed, and can also be used in industrial and consumer manufacturing. Byproducts such as soybean oil can be used to produce various products from biofuels to fire extinguishing foam. Currently, the oversupply of soybeans has led to falling prices, while at the same time, the cost of inputs such as fertilizers has also risen due to tariffs.

The Financial Times mentioned that since Trump returned to the White House, he imposed high tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting China to take countermeasures, including suspending the purchase of American soybeans. This move has caused significant losses to farmers in the Midwest of the United States, even threatening some family farms that have been passed down through generations.

The New York Times in the United States emphasized on September 25th that since May this year, China has not purchased any American soybeans. According to the Economist, reviewing official records dating back to 1998, this is the first time in nearly 30 years that China has not purchased any American soybeans.

Aside from economic impacts, this procurement disruption also has political implications - soybean farmers are a key voting group in the United States, making the trade dispute a point of conflict with national impact.

"When the agricultural economy is in trouble, it directly affects our small rural communities," said Johnson from Minnesota: "This directly hits the American rural areas and my hometown town."

On September 25th local time, President Trump revealed to reporters in the White House Oval Office that he was considering launching an agricultural assistance program, which would use part of the tariff revenue to subsidize affected farmers, "We will take part of the tariff funds and give them to our farmers... The amount is not large compared to the total, but it is a considerable sum for the farmers."

He also called this stage "a transitional phase", trying to comfort farmers by saying "they will face some impacts in the short term before the tariff policy ultimately benefits them." Trump also inadvertently emphasized, "In the end, the farmers will get rich."

Changes in U.S. soybean sales to China - New York Times map

The Financial Times pointed out that the so-called "agricultural assistance program" proposed by Trump is not unfamiliar to American farmers.

In 2019, Trump had also insisted on starting a tariff dispute with China during his first term in office, and China subsequently reduced its imports of soybeans from the United States. At that time, the Trump administration launched a $2.3 billion "Farmer Assistance Program", and the biggest beneficiary was Brazilian farmers.

"The last time the U.S. did this, we lost about 20% of our market share to Brazil, and we never got it back," said Todd Main of the Illinois Soybean Association.

This time, Chinese buyers have once again almost completely shifted to the South American market, causing Brazil's soybean exports to hit a new high. Government data shows that from January to August this year, Brazil exported 66 million tons of soybeans to China, accounting for three-quarters of its total soybean exports.

Scott Gerlt, chief economist of the American Soybean Association, said that although federal relief may help in the short term, it cannot compensate for the permanent loss of market share caused by expansion in other regions.

"Farmers are facing huge financial pressure, and the longer China stays away from the market, the greater this pressure will be," he added, noting that the number of bankruptcies among American farms is already rising.

Nick Lewandowski, head of the Kansas Farmers Union, told local media KSHB in Kansas City that the local agricultural economy has fallen into crisis, and farmers can't wait anymore.

"Farmers are on the verge of collapse, but this government says, 'Wait a little longer,' "Lewandowski said: "Farmers don't have time to wait. Farmers need the White House, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, and Congress to take immediate action... Time is not on our side."

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