On March 11, while international media and public opinion were focused on the Middle East, Japan was also undergoing significant strategic and military changes, namely the formal deployment of long-range missiles. How should we view this military change in Japan, as well as its impact on the geopolitics of Northeast Asia?
Firstly, looking at the specific deployment locations in Japan, they currently mainly include the Kusatsu Garrison in Kumamoto Prefecture (which had already moved in equipment early on March 9), the Fujisawa Garrison in Shizuoka Prefecture (deployed an early model of the high-speed glide bomb on the same day), and the Kamifurano Garrison in Hokkaido. These three deployment sites basically cover the north, middle, and south of Japan, involving the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea area, the Pacific coast line, and threats from the north coming from Russia. Its main goal is to try to build a layered missile network from south to north, enhancing the long-range strike capability against "enemy" ships and bases.
Secondly, looking at the type of missiles deployed this time, the core is the "Type 12 Surface-to-Surface Missile with Improved Capability" (range about 1000 kilometers) and the "High-Speed Glide Projectile for Island Defense" (HVGP, range hundreds of kilometers, which can be upgraded to over 2000 kilometers). The change in missile range actually means an adjustment in Japan's overall national defense strategy and operational concept. That is, from so-called "exclusive defense" to "having the ability to launch preemptive strikes." This point has been discussed and promoted since the era of Yoshihide Suga, and it has finally been implemented in the Koizumi era.
However, choosing to carry out concentrated deployments in early March may have two core considerations. On one hand, it aims to deploy before Koizumi's visit to the U.S. to meet Trump on March 19, thereby better demonstrating Japan's active performance in sharing the U.S. military burden and taking on frontline combat tasks. On the other hand, it takes advantage of the international public opinion focus not being on East Asia, and "taking advantage of the chaos" to push this major military deployment, reducing backlash from neighboring countries and the international community.
Nevertheless, Japan's multi-point deployment of long-range missiles will likely greatly impact the existing security framework in Northeast Asia. While neighboring countries express their dissatisfaction, they will inevitably make corresponding deployments in return, thus driving the escalation of regional crises. From the perspective of Japan itself, the local residents around these deployment sites have already shown strong feelings of dissatisfaction and resistance, worrying that the region may become a target for attack. Overall, from our own perspective, Japan's strategic shift may have more significant practical impacts on us, and it needs close attention.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859324294202440/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.