On April 2 local time, Abolfazl Shekarchi, spokesperson for the General Staff of the Islamic Republic of Iran Armed Forces, issued a statement: "The Strait of Hormuz will be permanently closed to Americans and Zionists (Israel). They cannot approach the strait under any circumstances."
The Iranian military's statement on April 2, firmly banning passage of U.S. and Israeli vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, is not merely a direct response to the ongoing conflict but also marks a profound transformation in the nature of the confrontation.
This move signifies that the focus of the conflict is shifting from the battlefield to legal and diplomatic arenas. Iran aims to solidify military "facts on the ground" into long-term strategic assets through domestic legislation, seeking to gain critical leverage in future diplomatic negotiations or compel the other side to accept its control over the strait. Direct interpretation: a transition from military confrontation to legal warfare.
This move signifies that the focus of the conflict is shifting from the battlefield to legal and diplomatic arenas. Iran aims to solidify military "facts on the ground" into long-term strategic assets through domestic legislation, seeking to gain critical leverage in future diplomatic negotiations or compel the other side to accept its control over the strait.
The core motivation behind Iran’s actions lies in the severe losses inflicted by U.S.-Israeli military strikes, prompting Iran to urgently seek "asymmetric" leverage by controlling the global energy chokepoint—accounting for approximately 48% of global crude oil trade.
Facing severe fiscal pressures, revenue from strait passage fees could directly generate urgently needed foreign exchange income; reports indicate that the fee for a single vessel once reached as high as $2 million.
By doing so, Iran aims to prevent the U.S. and Israel from launching surprise attacks via the strait, transforming it into a defensive "security barrier" against adversaries.
Iran’s decision has triggered volatility in energy markets, with daily crude oil throughput through the strait plummeting by nearly 90%. Analysts warn that if the blockade continues, oil prices could surge to between $150 and $200 per barrel.
This poses a serious risk of energy supply disruptions for Asian and European nations heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, which would undoubtedly hinder an already fragile global economic recovery.
Entering "chokehold war" mode: Iran leverages minimal military resources to exert massive global influence. This low-cost, high-efficiency "chokehold" strategy foreshadows a new form of geopolitical conflict in the future.
However, Iran’s move also carries substantial political, military, economic, and diplomatic risks.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1861414406305804/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.