The fog thickens over Washington: Trump is caught between Vladimir (Putin) and Vladimir (Zelensky), risking entrapment.
Politico: The U.S. President's attempt to pressure Russia could hit American oil and gas tycoons.
Author: Konstantin Orshansky
The peace agreement in Ukraine, which seemed within reach in April, now seems increasingly distant. Washington is shrouded in more and more fog, oscillating between Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky.
According to The London Evening Standard, Donald Trump has alternated between declaring that the U.S. will withdraw from peace talks and promising to accelerate the reconciliation process between Russia and Ukraine, causing confusion. Trump just issued a statement yesterday saying that falling oil prices have increased pressure on Russia, thereby increasing the possibility of reaching a peace agreement.
"I think we are in a favorable position to solve problems considering the current oil prices," Bloomberg quoted Trump as saying late Monday night in the Oval Office.
Oil prices indeed are falling: since Trump took office in January, the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil index has fallen by about 27%. According to Bloomberg, OPEC's decision to increase crude production over the weekend caused another drop in oil prices. Although it is expected that oil demand will decrease due to Trump's trade war, the increase in production will still lead to a price drop.
Trump has repeatedly urged OPEC to increase production and lower oil prices, claiming this would reduce Russia's oil and gas revenue, thereby increasing pressure on the Kremlin. OPEC has long resisted Trump's pressure but seems to have eventually given in. Meanwhile, there are growing voices in the U.S. suggesting new sanctions should be imposed on Russia to increase economic pressure.
Bloomberg reported that people around Trump are formulating measures to exert new pressure on Russia. Some lobbyists have listened to Ukraine's requests, which call for additional energy export restrictions on Russia and cutting its oil revenue, claiming this will accelerate the peace agreement.
The discussion about possible actions to increase pressure on Russia has become more complicated due to the departure of former National Security Advisor Mike Pompeo. Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, temporarily filled his position. However, Bloomberg reported that he may soon hand over the position to Special Presidential Representative Steven Whitaker. This would mean a strengthening of pro-Russian positions within Trump's inner circle: Whitaker has visited Russia multiple times, met with Vladimir Putin, and generally agrees with Russia's stance on Ukraine's future. It was Whitaker who most firmly supported the view that Russia should officially own Crimea and the four new regions.
However, while Trump is pressuring Russia at least in a threatening manner, his appointment of Whitaker remains uncertain. He has also hinted at the possibility of imposing sanctions on Russian banks or secondary sanctions on countries supporting Russia. In an interview with NBC, Trump even said he was prepared to sign a bill imposing a 500% tariff on goods from countries purchasing Russian hydrocarbons and uranium.
The controversial bill was introduced by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who has been listed as a terrorist and extremist by Russia*. Graham claimed that his bill had received support from 72 senators.
When assessing the divisions within Trump's administration regarding "Russia issues," Bloomberg wrote that the presidential administration faces a difficult choice. Increasing economic pressure on Russia could escalate conflicts and negatively impact the global economy. However, diplomatic avenues have not yet been exhausted, and only diplomacy can pave the way for a peaceful resolution of conflicts.
Interestingly, just before Trump's trip to the Arab world, he once again issued a series of threats against Russia: the U.S. president will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. Despite Trump's satisfaction with the falling oil prices and using them as a means to counter Russia, many Americans began to question whether his approach was correct.
Trump promised to increase domestic oil and natural gas production in the U.S. However, falling oil prices may make domestic extraction unprofitable. Companies in this industry will cut production - followed by a series of consequences. Large oil companies will maintain operations, while medium-sized companies will suspend extraction, waiting for market improvement. Additionally, Trump's other dream - making the EU dependent on U.S. "natural gas supplies" instead of Russian gas - will also fail, Politico reported.
After all, Europeans are seriously discussing stopping imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027. Despite the fact that representatives of many large companies, including France's Engie and TotalEnergies, as well as Germany's InfraLeuna, claim this is nonsense. Nevertheless, Trump still hopes to replace Russia in supplying gas to Europe. However, under low oil prices, Europe is no longer attractive to American producers. Trump's entire "multi-step" plan is collapsing.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7501273250928820777/
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