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At the beginning of the new year, when Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as the Prime Minister of Canada, his rival, the Conservative Party of Canada, was filled with joy. At that time, the Conservatives were leading by 25 percentage points in the polls, a huge advantage. In contrast, the ruling Liberal Party's support rate was only a meager 19 percentage points. The polls showed that no matter when a general election was held, the Conservatives would easily defeat the Liberals.

However, a veteran Canadian pollster named Frank Graves quickly noticed a different situation. Graves began to notice an unexpected downward trend in the Conservatives' support rate. But because he was a strong supporter of the Liberal Party and strongly opposed the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, Graves' observations were ignored and even ridiculed.

As US President Donald Trump increasingly talked about annexing Canada and starting a tariff war, the Conservatives' 25-point lead disappeared. Now, Graves predicts that Liberal leader Mark Carney will win easily.

In an interview with The Hill Times magazine, Graves said, "This is unprecedented. I have never seen such a huge shift in the Canadian electorate." Canada will hold its general election on April 28. From the perspective of polling, how did Trump disrupt the Canadian election?"

The Impact of Trump

Graves believes that the biggest factor causing the dramatic change in the polls is US President Trump and the series of messages sent by the Trump administration, not just about annexing Canada and tariffs. Trump's plan to rebuild Gaza, his attitude toward Ukraine in peace talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, and the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., all had an impact on Canada's political landscape.

Canadians were asked in polls: "Do you think the performance of the Trump administration is as expected, much better or much worse than expected?" Canadians didn't expect much, but most people said, "Oh no, it's even worse than we imagined." This caused a backlash effect in Canada.

And because Trump mentioned that Canada and the UK could become the 51st state of the US, national identity, which was at its lowest point in 35 years, started to rise again. Canadians began to realize, "Oh, they want to annex us?" This led to a sharp increase in national sentiment, which is also a major reason for the Liberals' high position.

An interesting phenomenon is that the forces that brought Trump to power and Brexit are also playing a role in Canada. Many call it "right-wing populism." Supporters of the Canadian Conservative Party are far more likely to support Trump than supporters of the Liberal Party, 25 times more likely. And similar to the US election, the Canadian Conservatives also attracted many swing voters who were dissatisfied with the status quo and tired of Trudeau's Liberals.

Understand Economics, Win Hearts

The US is Canada's largest trading partner, so one of the top priorities on the political agenda is how Canada can negotiate future trade relations with the US and all issues related to tariffs. During Trump's trade war, the resume of Mark Carney, the new leader of the Canadian Liberals, had unique advantages.

Carney has extensive experience in finance, having served as a senior deputy minister at the Department of Finance of Canada. In 2007, he was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada. He then faced the financial crisis, with the country falling into deep recession. His leadership at the central bank received widespread praise, successfully guiding Canada through the economic downturn. Later, he was poached by the UK to serve as Governor of the Bank of England, becoming the first non-British governor in the bank's over 300-year history.

Poll researchers found that one of the key considerations for Canadian voters when casting their ballots in future federal elections is who can most effectively counter Trump. Carney has previous success in handling global economic crises. He is considered to have advantages in promoting economic growth, addressing productivity issues, and dealing with inflation. These areas are usually where the Conservatives have an edge. However, Trump's economic problems and Carney's own experience gave the Liberals the upper hand.

After winning the party election, Carney sent an extremely tough signal to the US. Carney said, "The US is not Canada. And Canada will never be part of the US in any way, shape, or form. We don't want this fight, but if others provoke us, Canadians are ready to respond. So Americans should not get it wrong, in the field of trade, just like on the ice rink, the winner will be Canada."

The Conservative Strategy Suddenly Fails

Poilievre, the leader of the Conservatives, has been effectively cultivating populist forces. He conducted a very rigorous campaign with the theme "Trudeau is bad, Canada is fragmented, no taxes." This is actually similar to Trump's attack on Biden in the US election and proved effective.

But suddenly, with Trump's talk of annexation, Canadians began to focus on survival threats to sovereignty. Poilievre's words became meaningless to many Canadians. He needed to make changes, but it was difficult for him.

First, it's hard to abandon a framework that has been highly effective when you're just one step away from winning the government election. The second problem is that Poilievre was compromised. Because his core voter base, which is 25% of voters, are not worried about these things. They like Trump and think it might not be a bad thing if Canada becomes the 51st state. This made it harder for Poilievre to change positions. If he targeted Trump, he risked losing his core voters. The Conservatives tried many ways to label Carney as "the second Trudeau," but none of them resonated deeply.

Stanley Greenberg, a poll expert for Clinton, once told Graves, "There are three keys to winning an election. First is emotion, second is emotion, and third is still emotion." Because of Trump's influence, the emotions of voters now favor the Canadian Liberals and their leader Carney.

This article is published exclusively on Toutiao. Please do not reproduce it.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493512492669354533/

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