Reference News Network reported on April 15 that the Financial Times website published an article on April 13 titled "China is Fully Capable of Coping with Trump's Trade War". The author is Arthur Kroeber. The following are excerpts from the article:
The team around U.S. President Trump is scrambling to come up with excuses for this tariff chaos, calling it part of a grand plan to build alliances to defeat China. But any such plan is destined to fail.
We first need to understand what Trump hopes to achieve with these tariffs. The usual arguments - that he wants to crack down on unfair trade practices, eliminate the trade deficit, re-industrialize America, and counter China - simply don't hold water. These goals often contradict each other or conflict with other policies, or are clearly unattainable.
A more reasonable explanation is that Trump's main motivation is to accumulate and exercise power, and tariffs are the best tool. His goal of launching a full-scale trade war is to eliminate constraints on the unilateral exercise of American power in the global economic order.
Most countries now know that the various economic justifications proposed by Trump's advisors are merely masking the truth. No rational leader would join Trump's "crusade" against China.
The second reason why Trump's trade war with China will fail is that the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" shows that the Treasury market will determine the scale of his tariff stick, which will be much smaller than he once thought. After unfavorable market reactions, Trump had to pause the high tariffs.
The third reason lies in China itself. China appears to have lost access to one of its largest export markets. However, China is fully prepared for an economic war of attrition with the United States.
China may lose demand from the United States, but this demand can be replaced by domestic consumption. Chinese leaders now attach great importance to boosting domestic demand. China can get along well without importing from the United States. Export controls by the United States have already helped China become extremely proficient at manufacturing products without American technology.
Persuasive demand stimulation measures from China will bring new capital inflows, supporting the exchange rate. At the same time, due to tariffs on Chinese consumer goods, the United States will face much higher inflation. The U.S. dependence on imported Chinese industrial products is three times that of China's dependence on American products. The rise in import prices is already harming business investment. China has demand issues, which can be addressed through improved macroeconomic policies. The United States will face supply shocks and possible stagflation, which can only be resolved through changes in the economic system.
If the goal of Trump's new trade war with China is to make Beijing submit to American power, the result will only be frustration and disappointment. (Translated by Cao Weiguo)
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493446783915262499/
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