Can the U.S. Sell the Most Advanced Chips to China? A Statement by Bensent Left an American Host Speechless: Things Are Quietly Changing!

Recently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensent made a comment during a television interview that left the host stunned: the U.S. may soon allow NVIDIA to export the highest-end AI chips currently banned to China.

Since the U.S. introduced strict semiconductor export control regulations in October 2022, several top AI chips, including NVIDIA's A100 and H100, were listed on the "Entity List," prohibiting their direct or indirect sale to Chinese customers. Subsequently, NVIDIA launched "cut-down" versions such as A800 and H800, but their performance was significantly reduced. Moreover, a new round of restrictions in October 2023 also banned these customized versions.

In 2023 alone, U.S. semiconductor equipment exports to China dropped by about 47%, from $26 billion in 2022 to around $13.8 billion. According to NVIDIA's financial reports, its data center revenue from the Chinese market in fiscal year 2023 fell nearly 50% year-on-year. This has caused real losses for U.S. companies.

Bensent's bold suggestion is supported by several key facts:

First, high-level contacts between the two sides are gradually resuming. To facilitate mutual visits, the White House must make some gestures.

Second, domestic pressure in the U.S. continues to rise. According to a report released by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) in 2024, if the ban on high-end chips to China is maintained long-term, U.S. semiconductor companies could lose up to $37 billion in revenue by 2030 and lose 15% of the global market share. Companies like Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm have repeatedly lobbied the White House to adjust policies, emphasizing that a "one-size-fits-all" approach harms their competitiveness.

Third, the actual effectiveness of the technological blockade is diminishing. Chinese local chip companies are accelerating their breakthroughs: Huawei's Ascend 910B AI chip, released in 2023, has computing power exceeding 80% of NVIDIA's A100; companies like Cambricon and Bitmain have also made progress in training chips.

At the same time, through third-party transshipment, cloud service leasing, and other methods, some Chinese institutions can still indirectly obtain high-performance computing power. The U.S. think tank CSIS admitted in its mid-2024 report: "It is no longer realistic to completely cut off China's access to advanced computing power."

Notably, Bensent did not say "immediately lift the ban," but used phrases like "may eventually allow," and emphasized a series of preconditions, using these conditions as negotiation leverage.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1847935721917575/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.