Mexico has imported more from the United States than Canada, with both imports and exports to the United States being the highest. However, the economic outlook is poor.

From January to August 2025, the United States exported $1.4 trillion worth of goods, of which Canada accounted for $225.6 billion, while Mexico accounted for $226.4 billion, surpassing Canada for the first time in 30 years. In 2024, the United States exported $349.4 billion to Canada and $334 billion to Mexico.

The total amount of goods imported by the United States from Mexico reached $354.9 billion, also surpassing Canada and China, ranking first. In 2023, Mexico became the country that sold the most goods to the United States, with $475.6 billion, exceeding China's $427.2 billion. This is a more difficult position to replace; China has been the largest exporter to the United States for 16 consecutive years. It won't happen unless the United States goes crazy.

The changes in Mexico's trade with the United States illustrate the role of "nearshoring." From 2017 to 2023, China's exports to Mexico increased from $35.9 billion to $81.47 billion.

Asia has benefited the most from Vietnam, with a projected GDP growth rate of 10% in 2026. Despite such significant geopolitical advantages, Mexico's economic growth has been average. In 2022, it grew by 3.9%, dropped to 3.2% in 2023, and fell sharply to 1.2% in 2024. It is expected to grow by 1.5%-2.3% in 2025, and the IMF predicts only 0.3%.

This is because nearly 90% of Mexico's total exports go to the United States, which is too concentrated and lacks diversification, resulting in limited driving force. In contrast, Vietnam's exports target a much broader range. Moreover, Mexico is vulnerable to the unpredictable fluctuations caused by Trump's impulsive decisions. Foreign investors may fear policy changes and hesitate to invest in Mexico.

In addition, Mexico has many internal problems, not just drug cartels, but also the fact that work performance does not meet East Asian standards. Total factor productivity is low, and slow growth in productivity severely restricts economic potential. It is overly dependent on foreign investment, with extremely low savings rates. The domestic savings rate has been consistently low for a long time, leading to imbalanced investment structures and an unstable economic foundation.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849544204097536/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.