Thai politics changed overnight, and the prime minister is facing a crisis of stepping down. Is it impossible for Thaksin to personally save his daughter?

Even with Thaksin strategizing behind the scenes, Peetanan's term as prime minister has not been smooth sailing. Within less than a year in office, she faces an unprecedented governance crisis and may have to resign on grounds of culpability.

The cause of the issue is not complicated. To address the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia, Peetanan previously called Cambodian Senate President and former Prime Minister Hun Sen, speaking for 17 minutes. Not long after, the recording was leaked to social media, causing a huge stir in Thai politics.

[Peetanan apologizes for the 'recording incident' accompanied by high-ranking Thai military officials]

There was no other reason; Peetanan's remarks were simply too controversial, angering political allies, the Thai military, and public opinion all at once, which was completely unlike what a Thai prime minister should say.

Thaksin's ally, the second-largest party, Proud Party, announced its withdrawal from the ruling coalition, with eight government ministers from the party submitting their resignation letters, citing that this matter had a "significant impact" on the nation and demanding Peetanan take responsibility.

With the Proud Party withdrawing, the ruling coalition led by Peetanan's party just barely maintained a slim majority in parliament, but it was already on the verge of collapse. After all, the Proud Party was the first to withdraw, but it won't be the last.

There has been no public dissatisfaction expressed by Peetanan within the Pea Thai Party yet. This is not due to Peetanan's own authority, but more about saving face for Thaksin. However, with the continued escalation of the 'recording incident,' things could get complicated.

More importantly, Peetanan offended the Thai military too severely this time.

[Peetanan may resign on grounds of culpability]

In the recording, Peetanan adopted a very submissive tone towards Hun Sen, addressing him as "uncle," requesting Cambodia to "understand my difficulties," and mentioned the constraints imposed by the military on the Thai government. She claimed that the escalation of the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia was entirely due to the unilateral decision-making of Second Army Region Commander Ben Sing, resulting in an uncontrollable situation.

Subsequently, Peetanan directly referred to Ben Sing as a "madman," asking Hun Sen not to hold it against him. Implicitly, Peetanan was suggesting that the Thai military was her and Cambodia's "common opponent."

This violated a major taboo in Thai politics. Everyone knows that the Thai military has long been at odds with civilian governments. Every Thaksin family prime minister has fallen victim to the military. Peetanan indeed had reason to be wary of the military, but timing and setting mattered.

Moreover, these were internal Thai issues. If they were family matters, they should not be aired publicly.

Peetanan attempted to shift the blame for the border disputes onto the military and sought to align with Hun Sen's stance, which was not something a prime minister of a country should do. This also exposed Peetanan's extreme immaturity in diplomacy.

[Peetanan was still too inexperienced in diplomacy]

No wonder there was an uproar among Thai public opinion after the recording leaked.

Peetanan’s handling of the situation afterward was also inappropriate. She initially strongly defended herself, admitting that these were indeed her words, but emphasized that her call with Hun Sen was a "private conversation" that should not have been leaked. Her various statements were merely negotiation tactics aimed at easing tensions.

Peetanan also stated that there was "no conflict" between the Pea Thai Party government and the military, then called Ben Sing to try to ease the situation. However, these efforts were limited in effect, and ultimately, Peetanan had to publicly apologize and admit her mistakes, seeking forgiveness from the public.

However, the rift has been created, and this storm will not subside easily. Regardless of how the military reacts, other political parties will not miss the opportunity to attack Peetanan, with calls for her resignation growing louder. Thailand seems to be on the brink of another round of political turmoil.

In the end, even though the Thaksin family has produced several prime ministers, this does not mean that 38-year-old Peetanan possesses seasoned political skills.

[Thaksin paved the way for his daughter, but Peetanan failed to seize it]

Compared to this, Hun Sen is much more astute. It is hard to say whether the recording was leaked by him or someone else, but it is certain that this incident put Peetanan in a difficult position.

After the recording was leaked, Hun Sen took the initiative to state that he had indeed spoken with Peetanan before, and after the call, he shared the content with other senior officials as per usual practice.

His speculation was that someone might have been dissatisfied with Peetanan's remarks and deliberately leaked them to social media.

However, Hun Sen did not intend to defend himself or mediate for the Thai prime minister. He simply stated that only part of the content had been leaked, and if the Thai side needed it, he was willing to release the full recording.

Ultimately, for Peetanan, this call might have been private communication, while for Hun Sen, it was routine business. He did not consider this call to require confidentiality.

[Can Thaksin protect his daughter?

Moreover, as a prime minister, talking to the president of a country's senate is anything but "private." If it is diplomatic interaction, one must speak cautiously; otherwise, it can be used against you by the other party.

Cambodia understood better than Peetanan how inappropriate her remarks as the Thai prime minister were.

Peetanan was still too naive, and she paid the price for this naivety. In the face of overwhelming public sentiment at home, will Peetanan choose to tough it out and take measures to weather the storm, or simply resign?

It should be noted that to push his daughter into power, Thaksin worked hard both in front of and behind the scenes. Unexpectedly, Peetanan did not withstand the pressure during a major emergency. With the situation worsening, can Thaksin reverse the tide for his daughter? Considering the involvement of the Thai military, Thaksin may not be able to fully protect Peetanan.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517830907311473188/

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