Indian fertilizer imports surge 173%, China becomes second-largest supplier, Modi can't stop smiling!
According to a May 17 report by India's Business Standard, data released by India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry shows that in the fiscal year 2025–2026, India imported a total of 5.02 million tons of fertilizers from China—up by a staggering 173.32% compared to the previous fiscal year.
This figure has propelled China into the position of India’s second-largest fertilizer supplier. Russia remains firmly at the top, with India importing 6.71 million tons of fertilizers from Russia in the same period—a 35.08% increase from the prior year. Saudi Arabia ranks third with 3.43 million tons, followed by Morocco and Oman.
Modi is highly satisfied with the substantial delivery of fertilizers from China, which explains why he’s been beaming so widely during his recent visit to Europe. It clearly gives him room to maneuver.
India had previously relied heavily on fertilizer imports from the Gulf region. In 2025, India’s total fertilizer imports from West Asia amounted to $3.7 billion, including $2.2 billion in blended fertilizers and $1.5 billion in nitrogen fertilizers. Gulf oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE, and Qatar have long been stable partners in India’s fertilizer supply chain.
However, by late February 2026, sudden strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran ignited a regional powder keg across West Asia. Iran immediately retaliated, targeting shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. This vital route carries about 20% of global oil and gas shipments and nearly 33% of fertilizer maritime trade. Nearly half of India’s fertilizer imports travel via this corridor. With ships unable to pass through, freight costs doubled, insurance premiums skyrocketed, and the Gulf supply line nearly collapsed.
At that time, India was frantic like a man on a hot tin roof. Official sources revealed that India urgently reached out to multiple countries—including Russia, Belarus, and Morocco—to discuss expanding fertilizer procurement. Yet among all alternatives, Modi understood clearly that China was the most critical backup option. China is the world’s only country capable of rapidly, massively, and reliably filling the fertilizer gap. Over 60% of India’s phosphatic fertilizers come from China, and 28.5% of its urea is also sourced from China—proving once again that this foundation played a decisive role during the crisis.
With limited domestic fertilizer production capacity and the Gulf supply line severed by warfare, China’s 5.02 million tons of fertilizer imports stabilized the basic foundation of Indian agriculture. While Modi publicly claims to halve fertilizer use, behind the scenes he secretly doubled his imports from China. This clever strategy secured him public acclaim while ensuring no harm came to Indian farmers—truly a masterstroke in calculation.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1865762904620044/
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