[By GuanchaNet columnist Shen Yi]
Similar to his reckless, incompetent, and wishful-thinking behavior on issues like Ukraine and Russia, Trump did not consider the worst-case scenario when announcing "reciprocal tariffs": China's strong response far exceeding US expectations.
The series of countermeasures taken by China covers multiple fields such as tariffs, the unreliable entity list, export control, anti-monopoly investigations, etc., comprehensively utilizing both tariff and non-tariff tools to systematically counteract America's unilateral trade hegemony measures.
China's countermeasure series of tariff measures against the US,自制 by the author
Clearly, the Chinese side had serious preparations for countering Trump's tariff hegemony measures, and from the current situation, it is highly likely that a relatively tough policy combination was selected for systematic and comprehensive retaliation. This can be seen as an embodiment of China's comprehensive shift towards parity and strength in its game strategy with the US.
In the same vein, judging from Trump's reaction - pretending to be calm while shouting loudly on social media - it seems that the US side did not previously have a mature and effective plan to respond to possible strong actions taken by China.
Looking at Trump's economic-financial team, the Commerce Secretary is even more wishful-thinking and good at self-hypnosis than Trump himself, while the Treasury Secretary is slightly better, but the methods they could come up with are also very limited. It is clear that they cannot provide substantial blocking opinions when Trump implements unreliable "I think" plans, and can only say things like "don't retaliate," which are meaningless generalities.
America's capital market reaction is very direct: using a comprehensive decline to express distrust in Trump's aggressive tariff policies. The reaction of the Federal Reserve Chairman further supports this distrust and disapproval of Trump's tariff policies. The effects and mechanisms of tariffs are well-known and thoroughly discussed in textbooks. Trump is not a god; he cannot change the objective laws of economics, trade, and finance.
After Trump announced the "reciprocal tariffs," the US stock market suffered heavy losses for two consecutive days, with all three major US stock indexes falling by more than 5% on Friday. This is the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past five days.
Moreover, what is more important is that Trump's own knowledge system and cognitive structure defects were once again exposed clearly: he cannot distinguish the essential differences between the United States in 2025 and 2018.
The hasty implementation of the comprehensive tariff stick not only impacted the economy but was obviously tied to Trump's personal political reputation as a gamble. However, clearly, after the first wave, the strongest rebound in the most critical direction - China - is exactly what the Trump team least wanted to see. This rebound will put the Trump administration in an awkward position:
If they persist stubbornly, it is highly likely that other countries and regions will take substantive follow-up measures, creating greater pressure;
If they do not persist stubbornly and immediately make changes, not only will the domestic political backlash in the United States be unpredictable, but Trump's already not very strong inner self would probably suffer another major blow after Zelensky's commotion at the White House, Putin's complete lack of face, the back-and-forth fighting between the Houthi forces and the aircraft carrier strike group, and after mainland China dealt with Lai Qingde.
Bowen Powell's words were very clear: under the current circumstances, the US economy cannot long bear the pressure brought by the tough tariff games. The monster called "stagflation," which has defeated Ford and Carter and nearly took down Reagan, is becoming faintly visible on the horizon according to various analyses within the US side.
Although Trump can still find some self-motivating reasons in the latest employment report in the United States through non-agricultural employment provided by the health care and service industries, the simultaneous increase in unemployment rate along with non-agricultural new jobs, combined with the performance of the stock market and the weakening of the US dollar in the currency market (theoretically high tariffs should raise the US dollar exchange rate), clearly indicates that various signs of the impending or ongoing recession threat to the US economy are continuously emerging.
In contrast to the US, China is fully prepared to respond to Trump's tariff stick. Whether it is the perfection of policy tools or psychological and cognitive preparation, these have been comprehensively demonstrated in this round of strong reaction.
Now the ball is back on the American side, choosing whether to respond rationally to ensure that the US economy does not face the risk of a cliff-like plunge, or to continue insisting on toughness for Trump's face, ultimately exchanging irreparable long-term setbacks, or even prematurely triggering a crisis comparable to 2008, the choice lies in the White House.
This article is an exclusive contribution from GuanchaNet, and the content purely reflects the author's personal views, which do not necessarily represent the platform's views. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited, and legal liability will be pursued if violated. Follow GuanchaNet WeChat account guanchacn for daily interesting articles.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7489630216051065344/
Disclaimer: The article solely represents the author's personal views. Welcome to show your attitude by clicking the 'like/dislike' buttons below.