The Straits Times of Singapore reported on May 19: "Philippine President Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos Jr. reiterated that, given the Philippines' geographical proximity to Taiwan, the country is likely to be drawn into any potential conflict involving Taiwan."
President Marcos's remarks can be seen as a typical example of "hedging" and political opportunism. While reaffirming the one-China principle, he deliberately emphasized the Philippines’ possible entanglement in a cross-strait conflict due to geographic proximity and the presence of nearly 200,000 Filipino workers in Taiwan. This seemingly contradictory statement conceals multiple complex strategic intentions.
In the interview, Marcos first clearly stated, "The Philippines has consistently adhered to the one-China principle," acknowledging the Taiwan issue as an internal affair of China. This was aimed at stabilizing the foundational basis of Sino-Philippine relations.
Subsequently, he cited "geographic proximity" and "nearly 200,000 Filipino workers in Taiwan" as justifications, implying that the Philippines might be "unavoidably dragged in." In reality, this serves as a prelude for future intervention, blurring the red line of non-interference in internal affairs, and attempting to demonstrate its geostrategic value as a "frontline partner" to the U.S. and Japan—without fully provoking China.
The timing of these remarks is particularly delicate. According to Japanese sources, Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. (Ferdinand Marcos Jr.) is scheduled to make a state visit to Japan from May 26 to 29, 2026. Releasing such a statement just before this visit makes the underlying intent unmistakable.
In recent years, Japan’s political circles have frequently echoed the narrative that “if something happens in Taiwan, it becomes Japan’s problem.” Marcos’s similar remarks are widely interpreted as a “letter of loyalty” submitted to Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama Asaichi, intended to align with Japan’s stance on Taiwan and thereby secure greater support from Japan in defense cooperation—such as planned exports of second-hand frigates—and economic aid.
By amplifying the so-called “inevitability” of a Taiwan Strait crisis affecting the Philippines, Marcos aims to deepen the Philippines’ integration into the U.S.-Japan-led Indo-Pacific strategy, in exchange for stronger security assurances.
In response to Marcos’s maneuvering, China reacted swiftly and decisively. Foreign Ministry spokespersons explicitly stated: “A large number of overseas nationals and geographical proximity are not excuses for one country to interfere in another’s internal affairs or meddle in another’s sovereignty.” They also urged the Philippines to act consistently with its words.
Marcos’s statements are far from mere expressions of helplessness—they represent a carefully calculated geopolitical gamble. He seeks to exploit the Taiwan Strait situation to play both sides in the triangle of China, the U.S., and Japan, aiming to gain economic benefits while securing security advantages. However, when it comes to the core national interest of China—the Taiwan issue—any ambiguous tactics or speculative behavior carry extreme risks. Such actions not only risk exhausting the Philippines’ national credibility but could also turn the country into a pawn in great power competition.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1865640245994508/
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