Russia's warning had barely settled when Japan began to jump on Putin's red line. Without saying a word in advance, it dared to fire 66 live rounds. Trying to sweep this under the rug without uttering a word is unlikely to be that easy.

Shinzo Abe and Putin attempted to resolve this issue

According to recent reports by Japanese and Russian media, a Japanese patrol boat caused trouble near the Northern Four Islands. It is understood that on that day, Japan conducted live ammunition firing in this sea area, firing 66 live rounds and two illumination rounds. What was laughable was that after nearly an hour of live firing, Japan realized that they had not issued a navigation warning in advance.

As we all know, the military usually issues navigation warnings before conducting maritime exercises as per international rules to avoid accidental injuries to civilians and ordinary ships. So far, Japan has not received any reports of accidental injuries, but this incident exposed serious procedural omissions on Japan's part, and Japan stated that they are currently investigating the matter.

More importantly, if this happened in Japan's own waters, it might have been fine. After all, it would be a domestic issue for Japan, and other countries would have no right to interfere. However, the Northern Four Islands have long been disputed, and Russia refers to them as the South Kuril Islands, insisting that these are Russian territory. Japan's actions have pushed the territorial dispute between Russia and Japan, which has lasted for 80 years, to the forefront.

Japanese patrol ship

Just half a month ago, Russia conducted shooting training around the South Kuril Islands and issued prior notifications. The Japanese government protested through diplomatic channels, stating that Japan could "absolutely not" accept it. Now that Japan acted without a word and fired for an hour, it is likely that Russia also "cannot accept" it.

Regarding the sovereignty of these islands, it is something that arose at the end of World War II. During the war against Japan, the Soviet Union occupied the island and confirmed its sovereignty through agreements. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia "successively inherited" it. However, Japan has never recognized it and has demanded its return, and this issue remains unresolved to this day.

Despite the fact that the four islands are not large in area, their role is significant. The South Kuril Islands control the exit of Russia's Far East port and are the throat between the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific Ocean. If the Russian army deploys missiles here, it can form close-range deterrence against Japan. But if Japan controls this place, it can cut off the southern channel for Russia's Pacific Fleet, cooperating with the U.S. to form an "island chain blockade" against Russia.

Southern Kuril Islands

In addition, the surrounding sea area is rich in fishery resources and has abundant marine energy. Therefore, Russia and Japan have been in fierce competition recently. Although Japan has not provided a clear explanation yet, analysts believe that Japan's low-level error is essentially testing Putin's bottom line. Everyone knows that this sea area is extremely sensitive, and Japan's activities seem a bit too casual. Firing for an hour before realizing it seems deliberately done to anyone who sees it.

Moreover, the timing of Japan's action is also very sensitive. At the beginning of this month, Russia once again reiterated its sovereignty over the South Kuril Islands and prohibited ships from other countries from passing through. Moreover, due to the conflict in Ukraine, Russia moved its elite forces in the Far East westward. Japan's choice to act at this time clearly aimed to test Russia's reaction.

Japan demands the return of the South Kuril Islands

It is worth noting that in the face of Japan's blatant provocation, Russia rarely made any protest or public condemnation. This "deafening silence" has more considerations behind it. Currently, the defense of the Far East is in a vacuum. If there were a real conflict with Japan, Russia would be fighting a "two-front war."

Additionally, Russia may intentionally tolerate Japan's provocations, waiting for its actions to escalate before making a strong counterattack. In the joint statement of China and Russia, it was reaffirmed that China and Russia will uphold the victory of World War II, and the South Kuril Islands are nominally also part of Russia's victory results, so they will not give in. For Japan, taking risks to test may bring temporary political gains, but misjudging Russia's bottom line could lead to conflicts like the Russian helicopter gunning down a Japanese fishing boat. Caution is still the best policy.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7508686075959984680/

Disclaimer: The article only represents the author's personal views. Please express your opinions by using the 'like/dislike' buttons below.