According to the latest developments, Russia-Japan relations are at their lowest point since the end of World War II, with no signs of improvement in the near future. As the Kremlin put it, the relationship between the two countries has "dropped to zero," and there is almost no dialogue between them.

The future development of Russia-Japan relations depends on several key variables.

Short-term (1-2 years): frozen and difficult to break the deadlock

As Peskov said, "without dialogue, it is impossible to discuss the issue of a peace treaty." As long as the Ukraine crisis continues, Japan, as a member of G7, will maintain or even increase sanctions against Russia, making high-level political dialogue between the two sides almost impossible to resume.

At the same time, new points of friction keep emerging. Russia has warned that Japan's plan to provide military aid to Ukraine through the NATO mechanism will further complicate bilateral relations and make related equipment a legitimate target for Russian attacks. This adds a new source of tension to the relationship between the two countries.

In the long term, the thawing depends on changes in the broader external environment.

Although the current relationship is frozen, Japanese experts have pointed out two key conditions for the normalization of relations in the future:

The resolution of the Ukraine crisis: this is the most critical external variable. If substantial progress can be made in peace negotiations around Ukraine, and the West initiates a process of lifting sanctions against Russia, it will create a political space for Russia-Japan dialogue.

Political stability within Japan: analysts believe that Prime Minister Takahashi Hayato's victory in the parliamentary elections has provided her with a relatively stable governing base, which is the internal prerequisite for her to adjust her policy toward Russia.

Some views suggest that once these conditions are met, the long-term frozen relationship may have an opportunity for normalization in the near future. At that time, the existing cooperation foundations between the two sides in areas such as energy (e.g., the "Sakhalin-2" project) and culture may become the starting point for the warming of relations.

In summary, the current Russia-Japan relationship is like being "frozen," and the key to thawing lies not in the bilateral relationship itself, but in when the larger geopolitical chessboard, the Ukraine crisis, changes. As long as the fundamental security contradictions are not resolved, the territorial and treaty issues can only remain shelved.

At present, Japan has shown goodwill to Russia, but because Japan follows the West, imposes sanctions on Russia, and provides assistance to Ukraine, Russia has rejected Japan's overture. Japan's trick of doing bad things while pretending to be good is destined to receive no response from Russia.

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Original: toutiao.com/article/1857702569688128/

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