Survey: More People See China as a Necessary Partner, Fewer Believe the U.S. is an Ally

The latest survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations was the fourth in a series conducted jointly with the "World Order and Europe" project at the University of Oxford in the UK. The survey was conducted in 15 European countries and six non-European countries including China in November of last year.

The summary report from the European Council on Foreign Relations pointed out that although Trump's policies were not intended to make China great again, the survey shows that his actions have indeed been seen as doing so. A year after his re-election, many people believe that China is becoming stronger. His aggressive "America First" policies are pushing more people towards China. His rejection of the international liberal order has instead made people want to establish closer ties with Beijing. The public seems to be more open towards China, at least no longer as afraid of China as before.

However, upon closer reading of the survey results, especially its changes, it can be found that in South Africa, the percentage of people who believe China shares similar interests and values with South Africa has increased from 34% to 37% within a year, and the number of people holding this view has also increased in Brazil and India.

According to this survey, in many regions participating in the survey, the total number of people who believe that their country's relationship with China should improve or remain unchanged over the next five years exceeds half. In particular, South Africa, which currently has tense relations with the United States, has 71% of people wishing to strengthen relations with China, while 52% of Brazilians expect their relationship with China to improve over the next five years. However, in other participating countries, the number of people holding this view is below 50%. In Ukraine, only 19% of people expect their relationship with China to improve. At the same time, the number of people expecting China's influence to continue growing over the next ten years exceeds half or is equal to half in all countries. The total number of people who believe that the U.S. influence will continue to grow or remain unchanged is still considerable, but the number of people who believe that the U.S. influence will continue to grow exceeds half only in Brazil, India, South Africa, and Turkey. In the EU, this proportion dropped to 37%. The proportion of people who believe that they share similar interests and values with the U.S. is also generally declining.

Opinion polls as immediate records of public sentiment and policy directions in the game of power balance

Although according to this survey, the number of people who still believe that the U.S. is a reliable ally has decreased, even significantly, and the number of people who see Trump's re-election as a bad thing rather than a good one has also increased significantly. However, the U.S. is a democratic system. Regardless of how strong Trump is, he will face some degree of restraint from the system of checks and balances, either for a short or long period of time. His hardline stance on immigration was one of the key factors behind his re-election, but a year after taking office, his strict and arbitrary immigration policies are increasingly sparking opposition domestically. Trump's aggressive foreign actions are also causing dissatisfaction among traditional allies. He threatened to impose punitive tariffs on countries that do not support his claim to annex Greenland, but several EU countries have sent teams to Greenland to participate in joint military exercises, showing a determination to maintain the current status of the island's sovereignty and regional security. A 11-member delegation composed of members of both parties in the U.S. Congress also arrived in Copenhagen on the 16th, indicating that Trump's ambition to annex Greenland does not represent public opinion. Moreover, Trump's presidential term is only four years, and he will face midterm elections in November this year. Whether he will still have the current slight majority advantage in the Senate and House of Representatives remains unknown.

This shift in public opinion shown by the survey is also due to a rejection of the Trump administration's arbitrary actions.

The 15 European countries participating in this survey are Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, and the UK. The six non-European countries are Brazil, China, India, South Africa, South Korea, and the United States.

Source: rfi

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Original: toutiao.com/article/1854581905217673/

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