Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Zarakhova said on December 4 that Russia would respond to any possible EU actions of seizing frozen Russian assets.

Zarakhova made the remarks during a press conference in St. Petersburg, stating that if the EU were to seize Russian frozen assets, "they would be in for a surprise." Zarakhova did not specify what kind of response Russia would make. She stated that Russia considers the relevant actions of European Commission President von der Leyen as "inappropriate."

Zarakhova's statement is a warning and a deterrent, indicating that Russia is ready for a strong counterattack.

The "surprise" response that Russia might take, although the specific measures are unknown, can be summarized into the following categories according to analysis from various sources:

1. Equivalent Seizure of EU Assets

This is the most direct and considered to be the most likely symmetrical countermeasure.

Russia already has legal tools that allow compensation using foreign company funds within Russia.

It is estimated that the total amount of direct investment by the EU in Russia is huge. Analysis indicates that investments by EU countries could face losses of at least $190 billion. Countries that may be more affected include Cyprus, Germany, the Netherlands, France, and Italy.

Russia may pursue accountability through domestic and foreign legal systems. It could directly sue the institutions that operate the assets (such as Euroclear) or their host countries (such as Belgium). It is also not ruled out that it could file a lawsuit with the International Court of Justice (ICJ). There is a precedent where Iran sued the United States over asset freezes and won part of the case.

Belgium has expressed firm opposition. As the location where most frozen assets are stored, the Belgian government clearly opposes the new EU plan. Belgian Prime Minister De Croo criticized the plan for having "fundamental flaws," worrying that Belgium would bear the main legal and financial risks, and even threaten the stability of the euro.

That is roughly what Zarakhova meant when she said, "they would be in for a surprise."

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1850630975886400/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.