Korean Media: Nobel Economics Laureate Warns: South Korea in 'Demographic Suicide' State

¬ [17th Asia Leadership Conference] Professor Joel Mokyr: Immigration Must Be Expanded

"South Korea has a very peculiar situation. It is currently undergoing 'demographic suicide.' South Korea is a nation that once achieved an economic miracle. But if people keep not having children, I fear this miracle will not be sustainable."

On the 20th, Joel Mokyr, co-recipient of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics and professor at Northwestern University in the U.S., visited South Korea to attend the Asia Leadership Conference (ALC) held at Shilla Hotel in Seoul, where he was interviewed by our publication. He praised South Korea's economy as a "remarkable success story," while pointing out low fertility rates and high external dependence as its greatest vulnerabilities.

Low Fertility Issue: "Expanding Immigration Is Inevitable"

Mokyr emphasized that the biggest structural risk facing South Korea’s economy is its population issue. He said, "It’s astonishing that in such a prosperous country, people hardly have children." He added, "Based on current trends, South Korea’s population could be halved within 40 years." He believes that beyond just low birth rates, rapid aging is undermining South Korea’s economy. "In 2001, the median age of Koreans was 32; it has now risen to 46," he noted. "Historically, there has been almost no precedent of a country becoming an 'elderly nation' so quickly within just 25 years."

Mokyr believes that although the AI revolution and robotics can to some extent compensate for labor shortages, they cannot solve the aging problem itself. He stated, "A structure where the elderly continue to grow and the working-age population keeps shrinking cannot sustain the economy." Even if AI boosts productivity, he argued, it cannot offset the impact of drastic population decline.

Mokyr’s view is that ultimately, discussing immigration expansion will be unavoidable. He remarked, "In countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia, millions yearn to live in a prosperous nation like South Korea." Yet he acknowledged, "This will inevitably transform Korean society and culture—a decision that is bound to be difficult."

Overreliance on Exports: "Enhance Service Sector Productivity"

Mokyr also expressed concern about South Korea’s heavy reliance on exports. He said, "South Korea is highly dependent on exports, and recent global developments are constantly marked by shocks and uncertainties—this is a serious issue." He pointed out, "Recent geopolitical disruptions, such as wars in Iran and Ukraine, keep occurring." He warned, "An economy overly reliant on exports will inevitably be vulnerable to uncontrollable external variables." His recommendation? "To my knowledge, South Korea’s service sector productivity is far lower than its manufacturing sector. I believe South Korea’s economy should strengthen domestic competitiveness and improve service industry productivity."

"In the AI Era, Humans Still Matter More Than Technology"

Mokyr is an economic historian who specializes in using historical data to explore long-term trends. When awarding him the prize last year, the Nobel Committee stated: "Recognizing his discovery of the prerequisites for sustainable economic growth through technological advancement." He is often asked how the AI revolution will affect the world. He replied, "Given the pace of AI development over the past decade, what will happen in the next ten years—only God knows." What worries him most, he said, is not technology itself, but the humans who use it.

He believes that misuse of AI could give rise to authoritarian regimes or mass cybercrime, but when used wisely, it can create extraordinary outcomes. He personally actively uses AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude, calling them "incredible research assistants." He said, "A new world is coming, and humanity will use AI to discover things previously impossible to uncover."

Joel Mokyr

Recipient of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics, an economic historian dedicated to studying the origins of the Industrial Revolution and technological innovation. Currently serves as a professor of economics and history at Northwestern University in the United States. In works such as *The Culture of Growth*, he argues that the background of Europe’s Industrial Revolution was an "open knowledge market" and "free competition of ideas." He consistently emphasizes that technological progress is not merely about invention, but rather a continuous accumulation built upon scientific understanding and social institutions.

Source: Chosun Ilbo

Original Article: toutiao.com/article/1865782232709132/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.