[Text/Observer Network Xiong Chaoyi] In recent years, the Liberal Party of Canada, which has long been in power, has been mired in crisis, and the main opposition party, the Conservative Party, once saw the hope of taking office. However, a series of "divine assists" by U.S. President Trump's return to the White House has dramatically led the Liberal Party to win the new election again, and it may also affect the future pattern of international relations.
On April 30, Hong Kong's South China Morning Post quoted analysts as reporting that due to voters' anger over Trump's trade war and his aggressive rhetoric targeting Canada, the current Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (Mark Carney) led the Liberal Party to victory in the election. If the current tense relationship between Canada and the United States continues, the new Canadian government may have greater "political freedom" to cooperate with China. Relatedly, Canada's willingness to form a political alliance with the United States on issues related to its second-largest trading partner, China, is expected to weaken.
Analysts have observed that in recent statements by Carney, he has repeatedly signaled a willingness to explore cooperation with China. Some scholars believe that after witnessing the unreliability of Trump, for Carney and Canada, engaging with China is more of a "necessity" than an "option."
"There are signs that Canadians' attitude toward China is becoming increasingly friendly." The report cited a public opinion poll conducted by Canadian public opinion and research company Nanos Research from April 21 to 23, indicating that more people in Canada support expanding trade with China. Overall, 31% of respondents said they believed Canada should expand its trade relations with China, higher than 7% in June 2023 and 5% in November 2022.
"Made in China' sounds much better now than 'Made in America.'" Andrea Baldwin, a resident of Halifax, Canada, said, although she usually supports so-called "progressive parties," she voted for the Liberal Party this election to block the Conservatives. In her view, the Conservatives are more aligned with Trump's policies.
Local time on April 29, Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Carney delivered a speech Visual China
Carney releases intentions for cooperation with China, these words attract attention
"There is real pressure within the country to realistically assess the possibility of cooperation with China because both countries are strongly countering Trump's tariffs." Paul Evans (Paul Evans), honorary professor at the University of British Columbia, said.
Evans believes that what is almost certain to happen is that Canada will "re-emphasize the importance of its commercial relationship with China" and negotiate with China to eliminate trade barriers. However, he also believes that unless the United States explicitly wants to continue its "confrontation" policy with Canada, cooperation between Canada and China in areas such as electric vehicles, information and communication technology, critical minerals, and other high-tech fields will still face significant resistance.
The South China Morning Post pointed out that neither Carney nor the Liberal Party he leads clearly listed China as a potential partner for expanding trade in their campaign platforms. Earlier this month, Carney, who once served as governor of the Bank of Canada and the first non-British governor of the Bank of England, even claimed that China was his country's "biggest security threat." However, analysts say that it is clear that this economist-led Canadian leader has not closed the door on cooperation with China.
Evans noted that it is noteworthy that Carney used the word "reliable" (reliable) to describe the partners Canada seeks in his victory speech, rather than the "like-minded" (like-minded) he used during the campaign.
In a news conference in March, Carney also emphasized that China and Canada "have different values," but analysts pointed out that at the same event, Carney also stated that China is Canada's second-largest trading partner, "and we can cooperate with China on certain matters."
Jeff Mahon of Canadian consulting firm StrategyCorp said that this subtle statement is a "quiet signal" indicating that Carney is willing to explore various options for cooperation with China.
"China remains a sensitive issue in Canada, and any political party proposing to do more with China during the campaign would not be a winning strategy." Mahon believes that however, the deterioration of Canada-U.S. relations has sparked new thinking domestically—civil society groups, government departments, and the business sector are discussing the necessity of "expanding trade with China" and "resolving trade disputes." This is not about embracing China or seeking deep integration, but more about finding solutions to disputes.
"Engaging with China is more of a 'necessity' than an 'option'"
The South China Morning Post mentioned that in recent years, Sino-Canadian relations have remained tense, especially since the beginning of Trump's first term. During this period, Canada has followed the United States step by step, aligning its position on China policy. During this time, not only did the "Meng Wanzhou incident" occur, but Canada also took actions against China on issues such as electric vehicle tariffs, Huawei 5G equipment installation, and the short video application TikTok under U.S. instigation.
In March, as a countermeasure to Canada's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum products last October, China announced that it would impose a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes, and peas, and a 25% tariff on aquatic products and pork.
Analysts said that for Carney, engaging with China is more of a "necessity" than an "option." Philippe Rheault of the China Institute at the University of Alberta said that Trump's unreliability as a negotiating partner "makes it difficult for Canada to put all its eggs in one basket."
Rheault emphasized the complementarity of trade between Canada and China, believing that this complementary relationship is "slightly higher" than that between Canada and the EU because the EU is more like a direct competitor to Canada, while energy is a key area where Canada and China have growth potential.
He added that China's current tariff countermeasures are also impacting the economic interests of the Conservative Party's "vote bank" in western provinces, meaning that although the Conservatives traditionally take a more cautious stance toward China, given that the election is over, they may adopt a more moderate approach toward China.
"Political Allegiance," Will Canada Still Hand Over to the United States?
Since Trump returned to power, the relationship between the United States and Canada has undergone a major shift. He not only imposed high tariffs on numerous Canadian goods but also did not exempt the automotive industry, which is most cherished by Canadians, while constantly releasing "annexation threats," claiming that Canada should become the "51st state" of the United States. In response, Carney strongly countered during the campaign and called for Canada to diversify its economy to distance itself from the United States.
Canada Broadcasting Corporation released election results Canada Broadcasting Corporation
In the victory speech later that evening, Carney emphasized that given the "betrayal" of the United States, Canada needs to strengthen its relationships with "reliable partners" in Europe and Asia. He reiterated that Canada's traditional relationship with the United States has changed, "We have overcome the shock of the betrayal by the United States, and we should never forget these lessons. We must take care of ourselves, and most importantly, we must look out for each other."
"When I sit down with President Trump to discuss the future economic and security relations between two sovereign states, we will fully understand that, apart from the United States, we have many other options to build prosperity for all Canadians." Carney said.
Currently, the United States remains Canada's largest trading partner, accounting for around 80% of Canada's exports. Analyst Mahon also pointed out that regardless of the situation, Canada is destined to treat the United States as a close economic and security partner. Another analyst, Evans, said that Canada's minority government could be an obstacle to cooperation with China. "Canada is more unified in its desire to counter Trump, but still lacks unity in its strategic positioning toward China."
However, analysts are quite certain that Canada is unlikely to bow to U.S. pressure as it did before on issues such as electric vehicle tariffs. Evans referred to such actions by Canada as "political allegiance" handed over to Washington.
On April 21, Wang Di, the Chinese ambassador to Canada, accepted an exclusive interview with Canadian reporter Dylan Robertson from the largest news agency in Canada, the Canadian Press. Ambassador Wang emphasized that China's countermeasures against related Canadian products were a response to Canada's unilateral discriminatory tariffs against China. These countermeasures are not permanent; they can be adjusted according to adjustments in Canadian policies. We hope that Canada can take measures to correct its mistakes as soon as possible.
Ambassador Wang stressed that recently, voices calling for strengthening pragmatic cooperation with China from various sectors, the public, and media in Canada have grown significantly louder compared to when I first arrived. Sino-Canadian relations have a solid historical foundation and now enjoy strong popular support. There is an ancient Chinese saying, "Public opinion cannot be defied." As a government, everything we do should always start from serving the people. As long as we carefully listen to public sentiment and earnestly promote bilateral cooperation, Sino-Canadian relations will see a significant positive change in the short term.
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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498988559018230307/
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