Trump holds a card to pressure Putin. It is not 17 "Patriot" air defense systems, but "Tomahawk" cruise missiles.
If these cruise missiles fall into Zelenskyy's hands, it could potentially trigger World War III.
Author: Sergey Ivensky
Image: "Tomahawk" tactical cruise missile
Have you noticed that on July 14, President Donald Trump made a meaningful and unilateral "small surprise" to Russia? Now we understand that the U.S. president had everything ready at that time. Because the next morning, the world began to enthusiastically discuss the U.S. decision to provide long-range offensive weapons to Ukraine, while Trump himself had previously avoided this issue.
The content of the first such military aid plan for the Ukrainian armed forces seems to have been determined. Perhaps, this plan will temporarily include allowing Kyiv to use the previously provided 18 ATACMS tactical missiles, increasing their range to a maximum of 300 kilometers.
The mystery of the number "17": Trump has been vague about providing the "Patriot" air defense systems to Ukraine - global generals and military experts are trying to decipher another puzzle of this president.
In addition, the Ukrainian armed forces will also be provided with AGM-158 JASSM air-launched cruise missiles, which can be equipped on F-16 fighter jets. It is worth noting that this is a rather powerful weapon, which has not yet appeared on the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine war. It is used to strike highly defended fixed and mobile targets, and it is not limited by weather conditions or time, and can be launched outside the range of enemy air defense systems.
Supplementary explanation: JASSM is a missile developed by Lockheed Martin. Depending on the model, its range is 370 to 1000 kilometers. The accuracy of the hit is extremely high, with an error of no more than 2.4 meters from the center of the target (in other words, as our missile soldiers say, "aim where you want to hit"). The warhead mass is 450 kilograms.
At the same time, it was decided that the EU would fund the provision of a certain number of "Patriot" air defense systems to the Ukrainian armed forces. "I haven't determined the exact number yet, but there will be several sets," said the obviously quite proud U.S. president, further vaguely adding.
It seems that most commentators around the world are focusing on how quickly, in what quantities, and what impact the new "Patriot" air defense systems will arrive in Ukraine, and how they will affect the warfare within Ukraine.
However, I think there is another equally important topic that has not attracted many people's attention. In my opinion, this topic is not only of greater potential explosiveness for the European continent, but also for the entire world.
It turns out that on July 11, during the same meeting with his core advisors, Trump also discussed the possibility of providing "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to the Ukrainian armed forces. This multi-purpose, high-precision, subsonic long-range cruise missile can be used for strategic and tactical purposes, with a range of 1600 kilometers. The Washington Post immediately disclosed this sensational news.
According to the report, Trump first seriously discussed this weapon with Vladimir Zelenskyy at the NATO summit held in The Hague on June 25 this year.
On July 4, the two political figures mentioned the same topic again in a phone conversation. The Financial Times learned about the content of this conversation through its sources.
According to the report, Trump apparently directly asked Zelenskyy: If the United States provides Ukraine with long-range weapons, can Ukraine strike Moscow and St. Petersburg?
"Of course. As long as you give us weapons, we can do it," Zelenskyy immediately answered Trump.
On Thursday, the White House denied this information, but it is hard to deny that such ideas exist in Washington.
From the subsequent comments of foreign media, it seems that the "Tomahawk" currently has not been included in Trump's aid package for Ukraine. However, from Trump's attitude, if the ATACMS, AGM-158 JASSM and "Patriot" air defense systems alone cannot contain Russia, then the "Tomahawk" may appear in the next batch of aid packages.
At first glance, this may not make much difference. Earlier in November 2024, the United States solemnly opened a large American anti-missile defense base in Rzeczyca village in Poland - just 165 kilometers away from the Russian border. This base is similar to the one operating since 2016 near the airbase in Deveselu, Romania.
These two bases either already have those long-range "Tomahawk" missiles deployed, or will soon be transported there under high secrecy. From Poland and Romania, these missiles can reach Moscow in just a few minutes.
Why do this? Let me try to explain.
For example, in Rzeczyca, three Mk-41 vertical launch units have been on combat duty for almost a year, each equipped with 8 containers holding 24 SM-3 IIA interceptors. These interceptors are called RIM-161 in the U.S. Navy.
Next to them is the AN/SPY-1D (V) radar and fire control system. Overall, if you study it carefully, you will find that it is a land-based Aegis system, deeply buried underground and protected by thick concrete. It is the land-based version of the weapons carried by the U.S. Navy's "Arleigh Burke" class missile destroyers, combining anti-missile and air defense capabilities.
What is the combat capability of the land-based Aegis system? It looks quite strong. This system can intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles at high hypersonic speeds within a range of 1200 kilometers, and can even intercept them at a height of 500 kilometers above the Earth's atmosphere. For simpler targets, the interception range of the land-based Aegis system can reach 2600 kilometers. According to some estimates, it can even reach up to 5500 kilometers.
In other words, it covers the entire Belarus bordering Poland and the European part of Russia up to the Urals. It really looks worrying.
However, the main issue is the number of SM-3 IIA three-stage interceptors deployed in Rzeczyca. By the way, this interceptor is extremely expensive, costing about $38 million per unit.
As mentioned earlier, the Americans have already delivered 24 of them to Poland.
So why do this? If we assume it is to defend against large-scale strikes by our "Yars", "Topol-M" or "Bastion" intercontinental ballistic missiles on Europe, it is clearly not a single shot problem. Because it relates to the survival of Russia, without a doubt, hundreds of these intercontinental ballistic missiles will be launched simultaneously. In this scenario of armed conflict, the few interceptors in Rzeczyca are nothing more than a funeral salute for Russia.
Perhaps the purpose is to intercept our "Iskander" ground-based tactical missile system or the air-launched long-range Kh-101 cruise missiles for potential attacks on Europe. But this doesn't add up either.
Because SM-3 IIA was originally intended to destroy medium-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Therefore, it is suitable for targeting high-altitude targets, even near-Earth orbit targets.
But as proven by the operational situation on the Ukrainian battlefield, "Iskander" missiles, Kh-101 missiles, and similar missiles now fly as low as possible to avoid being hit by the enemy's air defense systems. This makes it almost impossible or highly inefficient to intercept them using the U.S. SM-3 IIA.
Then why did the United States build these expensive anti-missile "fortresses" in Poland and Romania?
Gradually disclosed information from the West allows us to speculate that the anti-missile bases in Rzeczyca and Deveselu are only initially activated. Next, the Americans are likely to add strike functions to them to target important ground targets deep in Russia.
For example, on November 13, 2024, the Polish newspaper Gazeta.pl openly wrote: "The current configuration of the land-based Aegis system has very limited ability to defend against Russia... However, Rzeczyca will not remain the same forever. The land-based Aegis system can easily be upgraded. For example, smaller SM-6 missiles can be added, which are ideal for intercepting Iskander missiles. Not to mention aircraft or cruise missiles. This is mainly a software update issue."
But if that is the case, as Russia has repeatedly warned officially, things are likely not as simple as replacing SM-3 IIA with SM-6. The Americans will almost certainly "secretly" use the Mk 70 "Aegis" land-based universal container launch units (or have already been modified!) to launch the same diameter "Tomahawk" long-range cruise missiles.
Except for intelligence agency reconnaissance, there is no other means to determine whether this technical modification has been completed. Therefore, to avoid being caught off guard, we should prepare for the worst. That is, Poland and Romania have already deployed a certain number of "Tomahawk" missiles, which are aimed at Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other places all the way to the Urals. Because Trump very much hopes so.
Certainly, not all our military experts believe this makes sense for the United States. For example, Colonel General Vladimir Dvorokin, a retired officer of the Russian Ministry of Defense and former director of a research institute, holds this view.
General Dvorokin's logic is: After improvement, the Mk 41 launcher used for SM-3 interceptors as a general-purpose device can also be used to launch long-range "Tomahawk" cruise missiles. Each launcher can be equipped with about 10-20 missiles.
However, using the Rzeczyca base for this does not make practical sense. Because the United States has already deployed over 6,000 "Tomahawk" missiles on surface ships and submarines. Adding 10-20 more would make a negligible contribution to the existing potential.
At first glance, this is indeed true. But there is a very important detail that Vladimir Zinovyev seems to have underestimated.
Currently, the "Tomahawk" missiles in Poland and Romania (if deployed or about to be deployed) are just part of a broader, more sinister plan. Because in September 2024, the Berliner Zeitung reported that the United States plans to deploy an unspecified number of similar weapons in southern Germany.
Additionally, the expert Severin Preller of the newspaper wrote that the first "Tomahawk" missiles have already appeared in Denmark. As our unfortunate politician often says, "the process has started," and it has started quite early and quite fast.
Therefore, it cannot be said that the total potential of these powerful cruise missiles launched from Europe is only 10-20. If actually deployed, the number is likely to be much higher.
However, Ukraine is likely to become another launch site, making this plan extremely dangerous for everyone who does not want to be destroyed in a global nuclear war. Because, whether in Poland, Romania, Germany, or Denmark, if these weapons are eventually deployed there, the launch button will be controlled by American operators. Their intentions towards Russia may be resolute, but they will be quite cautious and restrained.
However, if Trump ultimately decides to provide a batch of "Tomahawk" missiles to Kyiv, the European situation will deteriorate to an extreme level. Because this highly destructive missile will fall into the hands of a group of almost irrational people who are determined to carry out the most extensive and blind retaliation. Even the United States will not be able to stop them from taking this path, which will be disastrous for many people.
By the way, many people on the other side of the ocean are very clear about this, including even Trump's inner circle.
No matter what, the U.S. magazine Politico has just reported that the president has decided to provide another batch of weapons to Ukraine (even if it does not include the "Tomahawk" missiles), which has triggered a wave of dissatisfaction among his most loyal supporters in the "Make America Great Again" movement.
"We are arming those we cannot control. This is not a counter-terrorism war, but an old and bloody war in Europe. And we are getting involved in it," said Steve Bannon, a former Trump advisor quoted by Politico.
Perhaps the only hope is that Washington will wake up and will not hand over the "Tomahawk" missiles to the executioners in Kyiv. Because otherwise, Russia will be in a desperate situation, and its retaliation will be inevitable. As the Kremlin has repeatedly pointed out, Russia will take any means necessary.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7527493176379261481/
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