On March 10, according to the latest public opinion poll conducted by Japan's NHK, the support rate of the Kishida Cabinet suddenly dropped by six percentage points from the post-election 65% to 59%; the disapproval rate rose to 26%. How should we view this downward trend in Kishida's support rate?

Firstly, this directly reflects the impact of the Iranian crisis on the Japanese economy. Especially after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the yen continued to depreciate, and the stock, foreign exchange, and bond markets faced severe declines, causing significant shocks to the Japanese economy, especially prices. Kishida clearly thinks from the perspective of the Japan-US alliance, firmly taking a stance against Iran in support of the United States, and has no better solution for the current situation. This may make Japanese people feel pessimistic about the future development of the situation.

Secondly, China, as an important external factor, has shown a clear cooling trend in Japanese public opinion recently. Mainly because after the outbreak of the conflict between the US and Iran, the Middle East situation has almost dominated the mainstream media and policy discussions in Japan. The space for the Liberal Democratic Party and conservative factions to mobilize populist sentiments through the China issue has indeed decreased significantly, and the effect of boosting Kishida's cabinet support has also been continuously declining and shrinking.

Finally, some other institutions in Japan have also released public opinion survey results, and Kishida's polling support rates have generally seen a moderate decline, with a decrease of about 4%. This also reflects that the key to whether Kishida can maintain a high level of support is her economic policy, whether it can fulfill her election promises and quickly increase the income of ordinary Japanese people, reducing their price and living pressures. If she cannot deal with the challenges brought by the Iranian crisis, it may lead to a scene similar to the first oil crisis in 1973, causing unexpected shocks to the Liberal Democratic Party.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859208456406023/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.