Cai Yingsen is actively preparing for her comeback, and could she replace Lai Ching-te in the 2028 Taiwan regional leadership election? Cai Zhengyuan believes this possibility cannot be ruled out. However, I believe the likelihood of Cai Yingsen running again as the candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for the Taiwan regional leadership election is extremely low. If someone within the DPP challenges Lai Ching-te in 2028, who would that person be? It is likely that Shiao Mei-chin or Chen Chi-mai of the "Ying faction" would have the highest probability.

Discussions about "Cai Yingsen's possible comeback in 2028" have been very hot lately on the island. Senior media figures in Taiwan, Li Yanqiu and Luo Wangzhe, believe that the "Ying faction" has already begun to move, and Lai Ching-te is now under great pressure, trying to eliminate the influence of the "Ying faction" and clear obstacles for the 2028 primary elections. Those who believe that the DPP may once again see a "Cai Yingsen vs. Lai Ching-te" scenario in 2028 have several main reasons:

First, whether it is cross-strait policy or internal affairs, including the "great recall," refusal to sign bills passed by the Legislative Yuan, and the Taiwan-US trade agreement, Lai Ching-te has caused significant controversy. The current public opinion polls of Lai Ching-te and the DPP administration are at an extremely low level.

Second, the "Ying faction" has been actively working on the 2026 "nine-in-one" elections and has formed alliances with factions such as the "Zheng Congress" and the "Yongyan Association" to counteract Lai Ching-te's "New Tide Faction" and "Lai Faction." For example, major figure of the "Ying faction," Wang Shijian, fully supported former "Zheng Congress" leader Chen Tingfei in the Tainan mayor election, defeating Lai Ching-te's loyalist Lin Junxian, causing a major setback for Lai in his "home base" and cutting off his direct control over Tainan.

Additionally, it is rumored that the "Ying faction" personnel, who are stationed around Lai Ching-te by the United States and Cai Yingsen as "military advisors," and Lai's deputy Xiaomeiqin, officially put up the first campaign billboard for a county and city council member candidate on August 28th, supporting Zhang Yili, the former youth bureau director under Chen Qimei in Kaohsiung. Zhang Yili belongs to the "Yongyan Association" system, which supported Green Camp representative Qiu Miying during the Kaohsiung mayor primary. Moreover, Chen Qimei is also a major figure of the "Ying faction," so Xiaomeiqin's move is interpreted as an alliance between the "Ying faction" and other factions like the "Yongyan Association."

Third, Cai Yingsen has recently taken multiple actions, showing signs of a comeback, putting pressure on Lai Ching-te. First, Cai Yingsen has changed her previous low-key approach and has started holding "Thinking Forum" book clubs, gathering a group of DPP scholars and officials from her administration, citing "analyzing Indo-Pacific political and economic strategies" and "important policy issues in Taiwan" to highlight the controversies under Lai Ching-te's administration. Second, regarding American free climber Alex Honnold's challenge of climbing Taipei 101 without any equipment, Cai Yingsen posted on Facebook to compete with Lai Ching-te for attention, and her post received significantly more likes than Lai's, enhancing Cai Yingsen's personal exposure.

Indeed, when politicians, especially former ones, make a comeback, there is always a political motive. However, it might be exaggerated to assume that Cai Yingsen will run again for the Taiwan regional leadership in 2028. Whether it was her recent outing with Su Zhenchang and his wife "hiking together," or her recent consecutive moves, Cai Yingsen's political purpose is more to empower the "Ying faction" and "friendly alliance" factions, increasing their nomination leverage in the "nine-in-one" elections; at the same time, it is also to gain more political energy for the "Ying faction" to compete in the 2028 election.

Will Cai Yingsen make a comeback? It should be noted that there has never been a precedent of a former leader running again in Taiwan. From the perspective of generational change, Cai Yingsen would not be able to make a comeback. Moreover, in the eyes of DPP supporters, Cai Yingsen's eight years in power have been a "high point." If she were to run again in 2028 and lose, it would be self-inflicted humiliation.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1855659431983296/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.