The volume of containers shipped from China to the United States has been continuously decreasing due to the high tariffs imposed by both countries, and experts warn that not only may American store shelves be empty in a few weeks, but it also poses a significant downward risk to the economy, threatening millions of workers in the trucking and retail industries.

Based on a 15-day moving average estimate, container ship volumes departing from China to the U.S. have sharply declined in recent weeks. Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, anticipates that import volumes will drop by 35% in two weeks since basically all shipments from major Chinese retailers and manufacturers have ceased.

Stephen Roach, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, warns that "American store shelves may be emptied within a few weeks," and if layoffs begin to affect the trucking-related industry with 9 million workers and the retail sector with 19 million workers, the U.S. economy will face significant downward risks.

American households and businesses are concerned about possible shortages and rising prices of goods. However, from another perspective, the sharp decline in container volumes shipped from China to the U.S. recently indicates that American enterprises relying on Chinese manufacturing have placed earlier orders and expedited shipments.

Zwima, Assistant Economist at Oxford Economics, points out that the recent surge in air freight volume should also be taken into account in supply chain analysis, as "many of the increased shipments to the U.S. are coming by air rather than sea." "The advance pull-in of goods boosts air freight demand due to its faster speed," "ensuring goods arrive before tariff implementation could save companies thousands of dollars," he added.

Bryce Anderson, Chief U.S. Economist at GlobalData TS Lombard, says the real impact of tariffs is not about supply shocks but depends on prices. "Goods will still come in," the question is how retailers will protect their profits and maintain unit sales after higher tariffs begin to affect new orders and merchandise.

"The primary principle for retail stores is unit sales," he said, "if there's a source of supply, bring the goods to the store because failing to sell items will lead to store closures." "The problem is not about supply but prices."

Dozens of cargo ships scheduled to arrive in the U.S. in the next few weeks have had their voyages canceled. Last week, cargo orders departing from China dropped by 60%, according to Stephen Shaw, Director of Freightos. Alan Murphy, CEO of Danish maritime consultancy Sea-Intelligence, said that shipping demand from China to the U.S. West Coast may decrease by 42% in the coming week.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498280357533237772/

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