In the week following the escalation of the struggle between the Trump administration and China, people are worried that this is just the beginning. From trade and finance to actual military capabilities, China has been preparing for decades to become the most powerful country in the world, and it is becoming increasingly clear that this moment is much closer than ever before.

Trump and his team have been seeking to address one manifestation of the decline of American power: last year, the U.S. trade deficit with China exceeded $295 billion. However, their approach has exposed the great challenges Washington faces in multiple aspects.

For a long time, it was believed that China's own demographic and economic problems would prevent it from engaging in a full-scale trade war with the United States, as access to the American market is very important for China. But Trump's tariffs have triggered retaliatory actions from China, dispelling the above view.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that the imposition of tariffs exposes the extortionist nature of the U.S. side, and China will absolutely not accept this. If the U.S. insists on its course, China will see it through to the end.

China is retaliating strongly. Despite the large scale of China's exports to the U.S. before the tariff war began, they account for less than 3% of its GDP.

China has a debt weapon, but will it pull the trigger? Just as trade inequality is the result of long-term factors and cannot be quickly resolved, events in the bond market this week (arguably the worst day for the U.S. bond market in 40 years) have made central bank officials wonder whether the era of the dollar as a global financial safe haven is coming to an end. This turmoil was triggered by financial institutions in Japan and Europe, which sold U.S. bonds to offset losses in the stock market, but initial signs that China was pushing the sale highlighted China's potential to cause significant damage to the U.S. economy by becoming a major holder of U.S. sovereign debt.

Some analysts still believe that Beijing is unlikely to sell U.S. Treasury bonds, as such action could harm China's interests. But people once held similar views about the tariff war, believing that national interests could prevent tariff measures from spiraling out of control.

In the current stalemate, given market volatility, there is great concern that China will use the debt weapon. Deutsche Bank analyst George Saravellos warned that "the next phase may involve a direct financial war involving China's official and private sector assets in the U.S... The losers will be the global economy."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Beetsant told European leaders that building a closer relationship with China would be "a failed plan," and predicted that after being taxed and leaving the U.S. market, Chinese companies would look elsewhere.

On April 11, the European Commission announced a suspension of plans to impose higher tariffs on U.S. goods. Will the EU now follow Washington's wishes and increase barriers against Chinese exporters? The EU raised tariffs on electric vehicles a few months ago, so this is not impossible, but overall, Europeans are likely to avoid imposing comprehensive tariffs on Chinese goods like Trump did.

In fact, the unpredictability of the global economic earthquake caused by the White House is actually pushing the EU in another direction. According to reports by the South China Morning Post, the EU will hold talks with China, and both sides are seeking to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Therefore, despite the Trump team's insistence that everything will proceed as planned, the outlook remains bleak from many perspectives. The U.S. has set new major trade barriers, particularly against China, weakening the Sino-U.S. relations that have driven global economic growth in recent years.

There is no quick solution to stop China's rise as a major power and the decline of America's global status.

American attempts to reverse the momentum of China's economic and military development can be traced back to Trump's previous term and continue throughout the Biden administration. However, despite these measures, U.S. debt continues to grow, and other key indicators, from manufacturing to the strength of the U.S. Navy fleet, continue to decline.

Even if the U.S. reaches a compromise with China, the results may take many years to materialize. In the meantime, China's rise on the world stage will continue.

(Translated by Hu Wei)

The article was published on the website of Britain's Sunday Times on April 12, with the original title "Can China Defeat Trump to Become the World Superpower?" The author is Mark Urban.

Photographed in Hengqin Financial Island on November 26, 2024 (Xinhua News Agency).

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493444196645536296/

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