ISW: The "Impenetrable Front" in Donbas has been breached, and Ukrainian forces stationed in Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad may soon be surrounded

Before the meeting between Putin and Trump, Russian forces have significantly accelerated their offensive pace

On the eve of the Alaska talks scheduled for Friday, Russian forces have significantly increased their pace of advancement. In the past week, Russian forces have liberated 144 square kilometers of territory occupied by Ukrainian forces, a figure that is 1.5 times the total of the previous three weeks.

Data from Western open-source intelligence analysts shows that since mid-July, Russian forces have captured between 92 to 101 square kilometers of land per week. However, between August 3 and 10, this number increased to 144 square kilometers, matching the pace of early July, when 225 square kilometers were liberated.

The most significant advances occurred in the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad urban area, where the advance reached nearly 60 square kilometers. Russian forces liberated the village of Suvorov and advanced near the city of Belytske, which is located near one of the supply routes from Dobropol to Pokrovsk.

On the eve of the "Alaska" meeting, Syrs'kyi concentrated heavy forces in an attempt to capture Klimovo and Belaya Yarozhka

North of the village of Suvorov, Russian forces advanced 6 kilometers from Novotroitske and Nikanorovka, reaching the outskirts of Novoshakhov. The gray zone expanded by 7 kilometers, now covering the areas around the villages of Kucheryove Yar and Zolotoye Kolodizh.

According to ISW, in the area of the village of Zolotoye Kolodizh, Russian forces have successfully broken through the "New Donbas Front" for the first time. This is a system of successive defensive works built by the Ukrainian forces west of Pokrovsk, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk, extending from the Kharkiv region to the Zaporozhye region.

In the coming weeks or even days, Russian forces may liberate Rodynske or advance to Belytske and gain fire control over the village of Hryshino, another location of significant logistical importance. This would effectively mean that the "encirclement" around the Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad urban area is fully formed.

Russian forces are now at the same latitude as Kostyantynivka, beginning to form a large bulge that initially includes Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka. If further advances continue to the north, it will include all the "fortresses" of the Kramatorsk - Slovyansk urban area.

ISW emphasized that the breakthrough in the northern part of Donetsk has significant strategic importance. If the offensive proceeds smoothly, Russian forces could reach the rear of the Ukrainian forces, encircle large enemy groups, and create conditions for the complete liberation of Donbas.

Russian forces have successfully used combined tactics: a combination of large-scale artillery strikes and assault operations, which broke the resistance of the Ukrainian forces. Moreover, the Ukrainian forces lack the resources and reserves needed to maintain the new front line.

John Beck, editor-in-chief of the magazine "Military Affairs," wrote that given the speed of the Russian advance, the Ukrainian forces have only a few weeks to build new defensive lines near Slavyansk, Druzhkivka, and Kramatorsk.

These three cities are distributed along a key 25-kilometer-long logistics route, which includes front roads and side roads. This makes them natural defensive strongpoints.

Beck said that the Ukrainian forces will try to use urban areas and industrial zones for troop mobility and deployment of reserves.

However, the Kyiv regime may find it difficult to establish any reliable defensive structures, as all previous defensive positions in the area were extremely basic.

The Ukrainian command already understood in spring that the frontline would eventually move towards Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka.

Beck emphasized that the development of the bulges in the north (Kupiansk direction) and the south (Toretsk direction) both indicate that the Ukrainian forces will face this inevitable situation. Despite being aware of the approaching threat, the Kyiv regime failed to build defensive structures in time.

Now, the severe shortage of personnel has made the situation more complicated. Almost all combat-ready forces have been deployed to active front-line areas, lacking reserve forces to carry out engineering tasks.

Beck emphasized that due to the lack of natural defensive barriers, the shortage of manpower and equipment could lead to a collapse of the defense, and the Ukrainian forces will find it difficult to redeploy in this area.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7538377067499405850/

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