In the spotlight of the global economy, the two-day Sino-US trade negotiation in Geneva has finally come to an end, and the results are beyond everyone's expectations. Both sides have sent positive signals and claimed to have made "major progress". This highly anticipated negotiation is like a roller-coaster movie, affecting the nerves of the world trade pattern.

Major Progress: Initial Consensus

Previously, Trump had already hinted at "great progress" in the negotiations. Chinese lead negotiator and Vice Premier of the State Council, He Lifeng, also expressed on Sunday evening that significant progress had been made in the tariff negotiations between China and the US. Both sides decided to establish a trade consultation mechanism and will issue a joint statement on Monday.

Treasury Secretary of the United States, Baisente, told the media that there was "substantial progress," although details were not disclosed, adding that they would be released the next day. He also mentioned that Trump had fully understood the results of the talks. U.S. Trade Representative Grille also pointed out that the agreement reached with China would help reduce the U.S.'s global merchandise trade deficit by as much as $1.2 trillion, while praising the Chinese negotiators for their toughness. He added that the rapid conclusion of the agreement implies that the differences might not be as large as imagined.

The Chinese delegation stated at the press conference that both sides had conducted in-depth exchanges on economic and trade issues, with an atmosphere that was sincere, profound, and constructive. Not only had substantial progress been achieved, but important consensus had also been reached. Vice Premier He Lifeng emphasized that this negotiation marked an important step towards resolving differences through equal dialogue and consultation, laying the foundation for future cooperation.

Process Review: Moving Forward Amidst Challenges

The negotiation process was not smooth sailing. On Saturday, President Trump posted on social media that friendly and constructive negotiations had taken place between China and the United States regarding a "full restart." He mentioned that significant progress had been made but did not provide details, leaving people puzzled about what he meant by "full restart"—whether it referred to starting over with tax rates or was merely a figure of speech.

The U.S. side showed wavering attitudes on the tariff issue. Trump said lowering tariffs on China to 80% seemed appropriate, while some U.S. media reported that the U.S. might agree to lower them below 60%, but the White House later emphasized that Trump's basic stance remained unchanged. The "back-and-forth" battle over the tariff issue was extremely challenging.

Earlier, White House economic advisor Hassett said that China was "very very eager" to reshape the trade relationship, which seemed to deviate from China's position. China has always adhered to the attitude of solving economic and trade problems through dialogue and consultation, but not as urgently as described by the U.S. side. The official media People's Daily also commented, implying that the Sino-US tariff negotiations would not be accomplished overnight and that they were prepared for a "protracted war."

Negotiation Location: Switzerland's Neutral Role

This negotiation was held at the residence of the Swiss Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Koloni, a suburb of Geneva. Reuters described that during the two days, black Mercedes-Benz cars shuttled among the heavily guarded villas, with sunny weather but tense atmosphere.

As a neutral country, Switzerland selected this location after its political figures visited both China and the U.S., providing a relatively neutral environment for the negotiation.

Unlike other countries negotiating with the U.S. often having to go to Washington, China and the U.S. chose a third country as the negotiation site, highlighting the equality attribute of their relations. It also powerfully attested to China's consistent negotiation principle—dialogue and cooperation must be based on mutual respect, equal consultation, and mutual benefit and reciprocity, rejecting any unequal or coercive negotiation model.

Uncertainty Still Looms: Difficulties Ahead

Despite both sides affirming the "significant progress" of this negotiation, normalization of Sino-US trade relations still faces uncertainties.

Citi Bank's Chief Economist Nathan Sheets pointed out that the current high tariff state is detrimental to both sides, reflecting this point. Gary Hufbauer, an expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, frankly stated that although the consultations are positive signals for trade and financial markets, returning Sino-US trade to normality will be fraught with difficulties. He cited an example where a 145% tariff is highly obstructive; even if reduced to 70% or 80%, the scale of Sino-US trade may significantly shrink.

The progress made in this Sino-US Geneva trade negotiation is undoubtedly positive, bringing new hope to bilateral trade relations. However, the road ahead remains full of challenges. The adjustment of tariff levels, the implementation of agreements, and the continuity of U.S. policies all require further consultations and solutions from both sides. The world is watching with bated breath to see how these two major economies will continue to write the chapter of trade, whether they will move toward win-win cooperation or continue to play out their games amidst twists and turns, and the answer has yet to be fully revealed.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7503332812712460800/

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