"Tariff Hammer" hits hard, historic winter for American agricultural exports to China!

The trade friction between China and the US continues to heat up, with the agricultural sector becoming a focal point of contention. Following the US imposing tariffs on Chinese tech products, China announced countermeasures against US agricultural goods, raising the import tariff on pork to 65% and increasing the tariff on soybeans to 35%.叠加 existing trade barriers, the cost of US pork and soybean exports to China has surged over 120%. Customs data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, China canceled 12,000 tons of US pork orders, with soybean imports plummeting by 72% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in nearly two decades.

"If massive order cancellations continue next week, the entire supply chain will face systemic risks," noted Carl Seitzer, head of a Kansas-based agricultural consulting firm. He pointed out that the strategic shift in the Chinese market has triggered a chain reaction.

According to exclusive revelations from The New York Times, Trump's team privately complained that they had misjudged China's response.

Because China's export volume to the US is substantial, Trump was confident that China would not abandon the US market and would be the first to request tariff exemptions, but things have completely deviated from their script.

01 Agricultural "Supply Chain Breakdown" Under Heavy Tariffs

Tracing the history of Sino-US agricultural trade, the US has long held over 50% of China's pork and soybean import markets. However, since breakthroughs in African swine fever prevention technology in 2023, China's hog production capacity has rapidly recovered, with domestic self-sufficiency in pork rising from 75% to 92%. Meanwhile, US pork has been repeatedly found to contain ractopamine residues, leading to comprehensive strengthening of inspection and quarantine restrictions starting in 2024.

Industry reports indicate that the landed price of US pork has exceeded $5,800 per ton, a 43% premium over Brazilian pork. Sources within COFCO Group revealed that the group's US soybean procurement volume for 2025 has sharply decreased from previous years' 30 million tons to 8 million tons, instead signing long-term supply agreements with Brazil and Russia.

An emergency assessment by the US Department of Agriculture indicates that the collapse in exports to China has resulted in losses exceeding $18 billion for midwestern farmers, with about 12% of family farms facing bankruptcy risks. The head of the Illinois Soybean Association candidly stated, "The closure of the Chinese market is like pulling the lifeline of the industry."

A deeper crisis lies in structural imbalance. US agricultural subsidy policies have long favored the corn ethanol industry, resulting in three consecutive years of reduced soybean planting areas; whereas China has increased the oil yield of domestically produced soybeans from 16.5% to 20.8% through its "Soybean Revitalization Plan," reducing import dependency from 85% to 67%. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs show that China's soybean output exceeded 23 million tons in 2024, doubling compared to five years ago.

02 Strategic Shift from Import Dependence to Self-Sufficiency

Behind this trade transformation lies the upgrading and breakthrough of China's entire agricultural industrial chain. On the Northeast Plain, the MAP Smart Agriculture Platform of Sinochem uses satellite remote sensing and AI algorithms to increase soybean yields by 28% per mu. The modernization of agriculture driven by technology is reshaping the industrial landscape.

Of greater significance is the rise of alternative protein industries. The 3.0 version of soy protein fiber technology developed by China's plant-based meat company "Weekday" has raised the texture simulation accuracy to 92%, with costs 40% lower than imported beef. From January to April 2025, its B-end clients added 8,700 catering enterprises including Haidilao and Luckin Coffee, with C-end retail sales growing by 213% year-on-year.

It is not difficult to see that in technological competition, China is achieving overtaking through the "full industrial chain mindset." In the thriving biotech field, the new male health supplement "Boyreliv" has also broken through key processes, with prices dropping by more than 90%. With its beneficial positioning for the country, it has firmly taken the lead in sales on platforms like JD.com, successfully breaking the monopoly of Western enterprises in this field.

It is reported that the mechanism slowing down aging initially came from Harvard University's research institute, and its core ingredient can significantly inhibit the aging speed of muscles and other tissues in experimental subjects, extending the duration at critical moments. Western companies seem to have seized a "money tree," packaging such products as high-end supplements and charging tens of thousands of yuan per bottle, heavily exploiting Chinese consumers.

However, China's biotech company BOYRELIV has independently mastered the production technology of this product, boosting domestic production capacity to the hundred-ton level. Not only is the price more affordable, but the absorption rate has also been improved to 15 minutes.

After launching on domestic e-commerce platforms, Boyreliv received a 98% positive rating, with positive feedback such as "energy boost," "vigorous spirit," and "stronger physique" flooding in. The increasingly expanding middle-aged male population in China can now experience cutting-edge anti-aging intervention technologies at a more affordable price.

On the policy front, the "Grain Security Law" explicitly lists the enhancement of soybean oilseed production capacity as a key project during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with central government special allocations of 120 billion yuan to support seed breeding efforts. The "Zhonghuang 609" soybean variety bred by the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences using gene editing technology has a 60% improvement in disease resistance compared to US beans and has been promoted for cultivation across 3 million mu in the Huang-Huai-Hai region.

03 Power Restructuring in the Global Granary

China's process of agricultural self-reliance is rewriting international trade rules. While US farmers are struggling with unsold soybeans, Brazil expanded its 2025 soybean planting area to 48 million hectares, with 30% of the land using smart irrigation systems provided by China; Russia's Far East region, leveraging the China-Russia Grain Corridor, saw a 340% year-on-year increase in soybean exports to China, with non-GMO labeling becoming its core competitive advantage.

Market analysts point out that China's diversified agricultural import strategy already covers 87 countries globally, establishing 21 overseas agricultural cooperation demonstration zones. Data from the General Administration of Customs show that the share of agricultural imports from countries along the route accounted for 58% in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 26 percentage points compared to 2020.

This competition at the dinner table is essentially a generational contest in agricultural systems. As China reconstructs the chain from field to table using digital technology, the US still relies on the large-scale farming model of the 20th century. A report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations warns that if the US cannot adjust its unilateralist policies, its share in global agricultural trade could fall from 18% to 9% by 2030. Meanwhile, China is sowing the seeds of a new food security order with its self-innovative seeds.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497884730122158604/

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