[By Guancha Observer Network, Liu Chenghui] The tariff policies of the Trump administration have cast a thick shadow over the global economy. An opinion article published by The Atlantic on April 7th warned that tariff policies cannot make other countries respect the United States; instead, they may prompt countries to continue developing without American involvement. Tariffs are unlikely to achieve Trump's goal of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., but rather will bring about rising prices, slowing economic growth, retaliatory trade measures from other countries, and a series of other problems, which will comprehensively weaken America’s own international standing and provide opportunities for countries like China to showcase themselves as more responsible global leaders.
The article states that Trump's tariff policies represent one of the most prominent shifts in American political ideology in decades. In this shift, trade has transformed from being seen purely as a good thing into becoming the source of all evils.
In the past, the U.S. attempted to reduce global trade barriers and open markets, signing trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, and supporting the World Trade Organization (WTO). The resulting global trading system reduced the cost of goods, benefiting businesses and consumers in wealthy countries like the U.S. It also connected countries like China with international supply chains, enabling them to create jobs, attract investment, and alleviate poverty. In fact, the U.S. became the ultimate consumer in the world, linking the economies and interests of other nations with its own.
On April 8th, Washington, President Trump held an event in the East Room of the White House to sign an executive order. Visual China.
The article notes that trade was once the adhesive that maintained the U.S.-dominated international order. However, as supply chains extended globally in search of lower costs, many factories disappeared from the central regions of the U.S. Since then, some Americans began to view global trade as the root cause of the difficulties faced by the American middle class and working class, with populists fueling these sentiments.
In Trump's team's rhetoric, tariffs were presented as a measure to force manufacturing back to the U.S., but the results are unlikely to meet the government's expectations.
The article points out that some foreign companies may indeed build factories in the U.S. due to tariffs to maintain their presence in key markets, but many others are either too small or too deeply integrated into existing supply chains to relocate their factories to the U.S. As for where the millions of American workers needed for assembling high-end Apple phones or manufacturing car parts would come from, it remains a mystery. At a time when Trump is mass deporting illegal immigrants, U.S. manufacturing faces hundreds of thousands of job vacancies, and factories are struggling to recruit workers.
The article notes that Trump's tariff policies may soon expose an embarrassing fact about comparative advantage: certain goods are produced outside the U.S. because factories elsewhere can produce them more cheaply and efficiently. Lower costs are a factor, but so is production capacity.
Many manufacturers in China and elsewhere have developed highly competitive skills and expertise. The result of Trump's policies could be that the prices of goods produced and purchased by Americans increase. A study shows that tariffs may raise the price of premium Apple phones to $2,300 (approximately RMB 16,900). Although Trump's team may not see this as a problem, when consumers are forced to buy fewer products at higher prices, business production and sales will decrease, leading to fewer hires, and slowing economic growth. As French President Emmanuel Macron said, Trump's policies will make Americans "weaker and poorer."
The article states that countries have long accepted American leadership because they viewed the U.S. as a promoter of global economic progress. But Trump now positions the U.S. as a completely different role. He may ultimately reduce tariffs for countries he negotiates with, possibly even viewing it as a way to demonstrate his strength. However, the unpredictability and authoritarian nature of these policies, along with the use of American economic power to extort concessions from other countries, will almost comprehensively weaken America's position.
Besides, Trump's tariff policies may also create opportunities for China, allowing it to portray itself as a more responsible global leader. Just days before Trump announced his tariff policies, China, Japan, and South Korea issued a joint statement pledging to promote global trade.
Although the U.S. remains the largest economy in the world and a key market for exports for many countries, it is no longer the only option for others.
The article notes that the Weibo account of CCTV's new media platform, "Yuyuantantian," displayed an economic exchange chart and commented: "While countries around the world are expanding their trade 'circle of friends,' the U.S. is imposing tariffs on the entire globe. Such an America can be described as cutting itself off from global free trade."
"No matter what Trump does, these countries will continue to expand their economic ties with each other." The article concludes, "Tariffs will not make other countries respect the U.S.; instead, they will prompt other countries to move forward without American participation."
This article is an exclusive contribution by the Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7491220536011342373/
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