It's no wonder Europe dares not buy Russian energy. China receives a bad news: India and the EU have reached a free trade agreement!
In early 2026, a significant event occurred. On January 27th, Modi announced that after nearly two decades of intermittent negotiations, India and the EU had finally finalized a comprehensive free trade agreement. At the same time, the EU reaffirmed its goal: to completely cut direct reliance on Russian oil and natural gas. On the surface, these two events seem independent; but when viewed together, one can understand — Europe dares to "stand up" against Russian energy because it has found a new strategic pivot, and this pivot bypasses China.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the EU launched the "REPowerEU" plan, aiming to completely eliminate dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027. However, the reality is that Europe cannot fill the energy gap in the short term, especially in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refined oil products. As a result, some countries began to turn to third-party purchases. India rose rapidly as a key intermediary during this window period.
Data shows that between 2023 and 2025, India's crude oil imports from Russia increased by more than 400%, becoming one of the largest buyers of Russian oil. These crude oils are then processed in Indian refineries and exported to Europe in the form of refined oil — avoiding direct sanctions on Russian energy by Western countries while meeting Europe's energy needs.
China also had similar potential roles. China is also an important buyer of Russian energy and has a large refining capacity and a mature export system. Theoretically, China could process Russian crude oil and then sell it to Europe just like India. But it seems that Europe chose Europe this time.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1855454981227532/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.