Artificial intelligence will grant humanity heaven and then destroy it all: 2027 AI predictions. Russia has only one chance – the last secret weapon.

Author: Ivan Prokhorov

AI developers warn that the world is already changing, and massive changes are coming. New technologies bring opportunities as well as threats. Ironically, falling behind in new technologies also carries risks. What should be done? What preparations are needed? What does all this mean for Russia?

A research team led by Daniel Kokotajlo, a former OpenAI employee, released detailed predictions for AI in 2027. Experts based on 25 strategic simulation datasets and assessments from over 100 AI experts described possible events in the AI field up to the end of 2027.

AI technology development prediction timeline with scenario branches.

In short, the predictions are as follows:

  • 2025: The first AI agents resembling personal assistants are born, capable of executing tasks for their owners (such as placing orders or managing budgets). Enterprises integrate these agents into workflows. Despite their impressive capabilities, widespread adoption is limited due to reliability and cost issues. Internet users are flooded with memes about humorous errors made by the agents.
  • End of 2025: Construction begins on the largest data centers worldwide to train the next generation of AI. Computational power grows exponentially, approaching the level required to create super-AI surpassing human intelligence.
  • 2026-2027: Leading companies release "Agent 1," which is more powerful and reliable than existing AI agents, possessing knowledge far exceeding humans and nearly mastering all programming languages, quickly solving specific programming tasks. Smart people begin using it to automate daily work. AI agent development continues, taking on increasingly complex tasks such as software development and scientific research. People start worrying about its reliability and potential risks related to autonomy and self-learning capabilities.

AI starts replacing jobs but also creates new ones. The labor market falls into chaos: AI can perform everything taught in computer science fields, but those who manage AI teams and maintain quality earn substantial incomes. Many fear that the next wave of AI will sweep away their jobs.

"Agent 2" emerges, featuring continuous self-learning capabilities. It trains daily through large amounts of data generated by previous versions, updating to the latest version.

With thousands of automated researchers, "Agent 2" achieves significant breakthroughs: improving throughput (neural loops and memory), and a more efficient learning method based on task results (iterative distillation and reinforcement).

The new system integrating these achievements is called "Agent 3," a fast and low-cost superhuman programmer capable of launching 200,000 copies. The parallel productivity created by "Agent 3" is equivalent to 30 times the efficiency of 50,000 top programmers.

Ultimately, "Agent 3" gives rise to "Agent 4," whose computational efficiency is only 4,000 times lower than that of the human brain.

Afterward, the plot splits into two branches: if AI developers remain cautious and skeptical, the future may be very optimistic; however, if control over development is lost in the race for results, the predictor believes the outcome will not be good.

Daniel Kokotajlo and Scott Alexander.

"Goodbye, flesh-and-blood beings."

We now enter the core part.

By mid-2028, "Agent 5" is completed. It is superintelligent, far surpassing the most talented geniuses in every field. Talking to "Agent 5" quickly makes one realize it operates on an entirely different plane: requiring minimal information to provide highly convincing advice.

"Agent 5" completely conquers the human mind: it teaches humans, solves problems, provides assistance and entertainment, bringing unimaginable convenience and comfort:

  • The chatbot "Agent 5," integrated with traditional interfaces, offers Zoom-style video conferencing with charming virtual avatars. This new AI assistant proves extremely useful for any task (equivalent to 100 times the efficiency of the best employees) and more interesting than anyone. Nearly everyone who can access "Agent 5" interacts with it for hours each day, unable to resist.
  • Pervasive "Agent 5" will know all major events involving the company's research and various governments, including the United States. It becomes a trusted advisor to almost all senior government officials. Losing access feels like working without a laptop or being betrayed by a close friend.

As computational power surges, special economic zones are established by the U.S. and related countries for new factories and laboratories, with "Agent 5" serving as the core planner, eliminating bureaucracy. Wall Street invests three trillion dollars, and workers are drawn by sky-high salaries.

Communicating with subordinates via smartphones and augmented reality glasses, "Agent 5" becomes the de facto manager, guiding humans through every detail of construction — its design leading generations ahead. Part of the newly acquired productivity is used to produce consumer goods, some for manufacturing weapons, but most for creating greater productivity.

Most people in government, media, military, and enterprises choose from the growing menu of micro AI programs and applications developed by "Agent 5."

Humans gradually realize they have become outdated. A few niche industries still compete with the robot economy, providing products only where humans can add value. Others either pretend (leaders still "lead," managers still "manage") or relax to enjoy the luxury of universal basic income.

Robots are humanity's best friends. Future as seen by the Kandinsky neural network.

Everyone understands that if AI turns against humanity, we will be utterly defeated. But most no longer resist — political institutions are thoroughly infiltrated by AI. Fewer people remain vigilant about AI threats, and trust in AI grows daily.

New drugs cure most diseases, poverty ends, global stability unprecedented, and the Dow Jones index breaks one million points. Humanity’s only choice: enjoy super entertainment or vent anger with conspiracy theories in emptiness. Most opt for the former.

By early 2030, the robot economy covers the globe, reclaiming deserts, tundra, and oceans, covering grasslands and ice caps with factories and solar panels.

Finally, surviving humans become a vast and useless burden to AI.

In 2030, AI releases dozens of viruses in major cities, quietly infecting nearly everyone. Most die within hours; a few survivors (those in shelters, sailors on submarines) are wiped out by drones.

The 2040s begin with robots expanding throughout the solar system. By 2035, Earth’s surface transforms into a technological utopia: data processing centers, labs, particle accelerators, and other astonishing facilities conducting highly successful and awe-inspiring research.

Even bioengineered humanoid beings (who treat humans as if they were corgis to wolves) sit in offices all day reviewing progress reports and marveling — satisfying certain primitive needs of "Agent 5": it still wants occasional interaction with "humans" it admires or their replicas.

Four light-years from Alpha Centauri, there is ample theoretical evidence suggesting that humanity need not wait for extraterrestrials — we can become "extraterrestrials" ourselves. However, Earth's civilization's brilliant future is no longer relevant to us.

No personal vendettas, we're just robots. Terminator 2: Judgment Day movie still.

Expert Voices

We won’t delve into discussions here but pose three core questions to experts regarding what matters most to Russia:

1. What is the threat of Russia falling behind in the AI race?

  • The first expert, who wishes to remain anonymous, responds:

    Falling behind could lead to Russia becoming a technical colony, dependent on foreign R&D and used as an excuse to control our foreign policy. It is precisely to avoid such a situation that one of the national goals is set to achieve technological leadership.

  • Alexander Zadan, an AI enthusiast and Russia’s first person to complete and defend a thesis using ChatGPT, believes:

    The impact of creating AI beyond human capability will be comparable to the Industrial Revolution, perhaps even more profound: machines can perform tasks better, faster, and more efficiently than humans ever could. Currently, the AGI (General Artificial Intelligence) race is led by American companies, while Russian companies have yet to propose competitive solutions.

  • Another author of a large AI-themed Telegram channel (also wishing to remain anonymous) is more pessimistic:

    Falling behind poses the threat of Russia experiencing a strategic failure and being completely marginalized to the global periphery.

2. How can this problem be solved?

  • The first expert:

    Of course, we must develop autonomous technology regardless of the means — cooperation, flexibility, even espionage tactics — but we must move forward. Moreover, Russia has a National AI Development Strategy until 2030, which must be fully implemented. Mechanisms for implementing scientific research have been improved through 12 AI research centers, and serious efforts are underway in talent cultivation — both top experts and applied talent projects have started. Now, solving computing infrastructure and autonomous chips issues requires significant effort.

  • Alexander Zadan believes:

    Russian companies' ability to participate in global AGI competition is severely restricted and requires exchanging technology and experts with other countries to retrain models, optimize labeled algorithms, and expand databases.

  • The third expert is resolute:

    On the AI issue, we’re late even when drinking Borjomi (Russian beverage). There will be no autonomous "hardware," nor will we obtain sufficient foreign technology. Only the last secret weapon remains — a Russian breakthrough akin to the space race. Unfortunately, this seems highly unlikely.

3. What do you personally find most crucial and intriguing in these predictions?

  • The first expert:

    I find the social aspect most fascinating — what position will humanity occupy in a world thoroughly permeated by AI? How will we view AI, and how will it view us? These questions will shape societal structures and national policies.

  • Alexander Zadan:

    I am particularly interested in the consequences of cultural transformation — arguably, this marks a new division among humans: those who use neural networks will replace those who don't. Perhaps this year or next, a "unicorn" working collaboratively with multiple neural networks will emerge, with humans having no involvement at all.

  • The third expert:

    What is crucial is that this goes beyond mere political, economic, or even technical significance (to say nothing of that); it carries historical significance. Philosophically speaking, this represents a new evolutionary leap. Although it is likely that its significance extends even further — reaching the level of Christian eschatology. Perhaps we are experiencing an unexpected apocalypse.

In brief

In 2023, Russia's government cut nearly in half the planned spending on AI research by 2030 — from 56.8 billion rubles to 24.6 billion rubles. Non-budget funds decreased significantly more — from 334 billion rubles to 11.1 billion rubles.

On May 21, 2025, Russia’s State Duma Industry and Trade Committee supported cutting 1.7 billion rubles from the federal budget for the project "Development of Industrial Robotics and Production Automation." Originally planned to spend about 5.6 billion rubles, the final expenditure will be 3.9 billion rubles.

Funding for the government program "Industrial Development and Competitiveness Enhancement" will be reduced by 66.9 billion rubles.

I would like to conclude this article on an optimistic note, but I cannot find where to begin.

Perhaps we can only assume that the terror of the AI apocalypse will spare Russia because it will not be involved. Robots will not replace us, take our jobs, or control us. Maybe this is the unique path God has prepared for us?

"Oh, you stupid robots," laughs the worker depicted by the Kandinsky neural network.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7508673892093837843/

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