Trump and Iran's "productive dialogue" has turned into a farce.
A 48-hour ultimatum—then, at the 36th hour, Trump suddenly hit the brakes. Oil prices plummeted, while the U.S. stock market surged. Those insider contacts favored by Trump must have made a fortune again.
But Iran isn’t buying it. From the Foreign Ministry to that so-called "shadow negotiator," Speaker Kalibaf, all denied it instantly, claiming Witkoff and Kushner were negotiating with thin air.
Among ten thousand improbable scenarios, President Pezeshkian and Speaker Kalibaf are considered the "impossible" possibilities.
Pezeshkian is a representative of reformists, with a soft stance, yet he remains unscathed—widely seen as receiving special treatment from the U.S.-Israel alliance.
Yet he holds no legitimate negotiation credentials. He’s not even in line for consideration right now; past presidents were merely clerks for the supreme leader.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry only acknowledges third-party mediation initiatives—such as those from Pakistan—and denies any direct post-war talks with Iran.
Trump vaguely referred to Iran’s negotiators as "respected figures." Besides this "hot candidate," he claims to be "evaluating" several others—but explicitly excluded the son of Grand Ayatollah Khamenei.
Israeli media quickly leaked that the figure was Iran’s Speaker Kalibaf.
This tactic seems designed to trap the speaker in a no-win situation, but ironically, Kalibaf is precisely the last person likely to negotiate with the U.S.
Compared to the assassinated rationalist Larijani, Kalibaf is the genuine hardliner.
Unwilling to bear this false reputation, Kalibaf personally posted a denial, clearing his name:
"The Iranian people demand a complete and painful retribution against the aggressors. Iranian officials stand firmly behind the Supreme Leader and the people until our goals are achieved. There has been no negotiation with the United States. Fake news is used to manipulate financial and oil markets, to extricate the U.S.-Israel coalition from their quagmire."
Bringing up Kalibaf now appears particularly malicious—it makes the market believe Iran is willing to compromise, while fabricating an image of internal division within Iran’s leadership.
The true intent? To use the knife of public perception to kill off this die-hard opponent once and for all.
After all, during national crisis, secretly negotiating with the U.S. without authorization from the new supreme leader amounts to treason. In a country currently conducting mass arrests of spies and traitors, this would be a capital offense.
In reality, Kalibaf is even harsher than Trump: if U.S. forces dare strike Iran’s energy or power infrastructure, he will “irreversibly destroy” desalination plants and energy facilities across the Gulf region—forcing them to drink seawater.
This is the real reason why they want Kalibaf eliminated.
Foreign Minister Araghchi called Trump hypocritical, accusing him of spreading disinformation as a cover for his own humiliation and failure before Iran.
Trump also offered a timeframe seemingly confirming ongoing negotiations: a five-day grace period.
If one understands the deep-seated enmity between the U.S. and Iran, even five months wouldn't suffice to produce meaningful results. Issues to settle include decades of sanctions, invasions, assassinations, regime subversion, and control over Strait of Hormuz navigation—each could take years to discuss.
Under such logic, the five-day window is clearly just another delaying tactic—buying time for nearly 8,000 ground troops, marines, and follow-up naval forces to rapidly assemble around Iran.
Why did Trump suddenly stage this TACO act just 12 hours before the ultimatum expires? What really happened?
First, the bill arrived. The Pentagon demands over $200 billion in additional funding. War costs have already reached $11.3 billion in six days and $16.5 billion in twelve days—averaging $1.38 billion per day, still rising. Can Congress easily approve such funds?
Second, the Federal Reserve is sounding hawkish, killing hopes for rate cuts—and possibly even pushing for rate hikes. This shockwave hits key industries including real estate, credit, finance, and energy, exposing early the inflationary consequences of a war meant to demonstrate strength.
Third, allies aren’t cooperating. Although 22 countries signed the Strait of Hormuz coordination agreement, none deployed warships for escort duties. Even Prime Minister Kishida evaded directly: “Constrained by the Constitution, I’m powerless.” Trump raged at NATO as “cowards,” calling its so-called “voluntary alliance” nothing more than a “waiting alliance.”
Fourth, global oil supply has dropped by 11 million barrels per day—more severe than the combined impact of both oil crises in the 1970s. This is the worst energy crisis in modern history.
Fifth, the midterm elections are deadly serious. Gasoline prices have jumped 93 cents per gallon. Trump’s real concern isn’t fuel consumption—it’s swing-state public opinion. Over 60% of Americans oppose war.
Continuing the conflict would mean handing the midterms to the Democrats on a silver platter.
Ultimately, the whole Iran affair is just about face-saving.
Being dragged through Democratic investigations—or even impeachment—is what truly causes unbearable pain.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1860499829044426/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.