Prime Minister Takayama's appointment may be delayed, affecting diplomacy with China and the United States.

【By Liu Bai, Observers Network】After Hashimoto Yoriko was elected as the new president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), she was expected to be nominated as prime minister at a special session of the Diet on the 15th. However, according to a report by Nikkei Asia on October 9, due to concerns from the LDP's coalition partner, Komeito, regarding Hashimoto's policies, her appointment as prime minister may be delayed until at least October 20. This delay not only affects the passage of the supplementary budget but also impacts meetings with leaders of various countries, including China and the United States.

Three days after being elected as president, Hashimoto on the 7th appointed the vice president, secretary-general, and other key positions in the LDP. Former Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda was appointed as the LDP vice president, former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Suzuki Shunichi became the secretary-general, and right-wing politician and senator Higashikokubaru Haruko was promoted to the position of director of the policy research committee. Both Suzuki and Higashikokubaru belong to the "Fukuda Faction," the only faction within the LDP that has not been dissolved. In other words, among the five major positions in the LDP, the "Fukuda Faction" now holds three of them.

Notably, the former head of the Policy Research Committee, Hashimoto Kōichi, who has long been involved in a political cash scandal, was appointed as the acting secretary-general, which raised concerns from Komeito.

Komeito leader Saito Tetsuo demanded that Hashimoto take action to completely cut ties with the financial scandal, including strengthening regulations on corporate and group political donations. However, Hashimoto's appointment of Hashimoto to a high position has deepened Komeito's concerns.

Additionally, Fukuda has become estranged from Komeito and its supporters, the Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai. Hashimoto also had an informal meeting with the leader of the Constitutional Democratic Party, Tamaki Yuichiro, considering him a potential partner.

On October 8, Japanese LDP President Hashimoto Yoriko met with opposition party members. Visual China

Under the backdrop of an escalating trust crisis, some members of Komeito have called for exiting the ruling coalition. Saito has stated that if no coalition agreement can be reached, Komeito will not support Hashimoto in the prime ministerial nomination vote.

On October 10, Komeito will listen to the opinions of local branches and decide whether to continue cooperation. The leadership of both parties plans to negotiate the coalition agreement again later this month. Originally, the LDP planned to convene a special session of the Diet on October 15 to formally appoint Hashimoto as prime minister, but this schedule is no longer feasible. The LDP is now considering postponing the vote to October 20 or 21.

Hashimoto has consistently urged swift action to address inflation, such as expanding support funding for local governments. She also promised to abolish additional taxes on gasoline and diesel. The ruling party and the opposition have agreed to eliminate these taxes by the end of the year. However, the source of funds to compensate for the 1.5 trillion yen tax loss has not yet been determined.

Hashimoto needs to direct cabinet members to implement her economic policies after taking office, prepare a supplementary budget for the fiscal year 2025 to provide necessary funds, which will take about one and a half to two months. Delays in forming the cabinet could delay the implementation of economic policies.

Analysis points out that previous Japanese governments usually launched economic measures immediately after assuming office in the autumn, such as Kishida Fumio and Ishiba Shigeru, who issued budget instructions in early October of their respective years, with the supplementary budget passed by the end of the year.

If Hashimoto's cabinet is established in late October or later, the possibility of passing the budget within the year will decrease. If the budget cannot be passed this year, emergency spending to combat inflation will have to rely on insufficient pre-funding of less than 30 billion yen.

Currently, the ruling coalition composed of the LDP and Komeito does not hold a majority in either chamber of the Diet, so it cannot pass the budget alone. After the additional budget, Hashimoto's cabinet will also need to immediately start working on the 2026 fiscal year budget and tax reform bill.

In terms of coordination with the opposition, the LDP and Hashimoto prioritize cooperation with the Constitutional Democratic Party, which advocates increasing the income tax exemption to 1.78 million yen. In December 2024, the LDP, Komeito, and the Constitutional Democratic Party discussed this issue, but they found it impossible to raise the required trillions of yen in funds, and instead agreed to implement a tax cut of approximately 70 billion yen in the 2025 fiscal year. As a result, the Constitutional Democratic Party ultimately opposed the 2025 fiscal year budget.

Hashimoto's diplomatic schedule is also very tight, but she has no experience serving as Foreign Minister or Defense Minister, and the delay in assuming office will inevitably shorten the preparation time.

Hashimoto previously made strong statements on historical issues and the Yasukuni Shrine. The international community is closely watching her diplomatic stance toward China and South Korea.

She plans to attend the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia on October 26, which may serve as her first diplomatic test after taking office. Around October 28, U.S. President Trump is expected to visit Japan, and both sides plan to discuss the implementation of tariff agreements and security cooperation. On October 31, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit will open in South Korea, and Hashimoto plans to seek opportunities to meet with the leaders of China and South Korea during the summit.

Regarding the future direction of Japanese politics under Hashimoto's era, Gerald Curtis, a retired professor of political science at Columbia University and a senior Japanese political observer, commented that Hashimoto's victory "will accelerate the decline of the LDP and eventually lead to its collapse." Curtis pointed out during an event in Japan on the 5th that the current question is not "whether the LDP will collapse, but when it will collapse." He predicted that this day "may come soon," as the LDP and its leadership may not be able to provide what the Japanese people truly need.

Curtis expects that Hashimoto, once appointed as prime minister, will remain cautious because "it would be foolish for her to create significant diplomatic incidents in her first year." He also said that Hashimoto does not need to visit the Yasukuni Shrine to "prove herself for domestic political reasons," as she is already popular among conservative supporters within the party.

Curtis also believes that Hashimoto will not do much on Sino-Japanese relations. He hopes that Hashimoto will use "common sense" and "find ways to coexist with neighboring countries," as China is Japan's neighbor, has become the world's second-largest economy, and possesses a powerful military force.

This article is an exclusive publication of Observer's Network. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559129448461632043/

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