Reference News website reported on June 23 that a key throat of world oil supply may become another victim of the war between Iran and Israel. The width of the Strait of Hormuz is less than 100 kilometers, separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula and connecting the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea. However, it occupies an extremely important position on the global stage as a key channel for Persian Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iran to transport oil and natural gas to other parts of the world. Approximately one-fourth of the world's oil supply passes through this strait with a width ranging from about 40 kilometers to 95 kilometers. In 2024, the average daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz reached 20 million barrels.

This strait is close to Iran. Since Israel bombed Iran's key nuclear facilities and military installations on June 13, the conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated. Iran retaliated by launching missile attacks.

In the past, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz during conflicts and targeted ships with interference signals and other retaliatory measures. During the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988, tankers and cargo ships in the Gulf were attacked by Iran and Iraq, leading to U.S. intervention and the dispatching of warships to escort Kuwaiti oil tankers. People are concerned that Iran may replay what is known as the "Tanker War."

After Western powers implemented oil and banking sanctions, Iran made similar threats to close the Strait of Hormuz from 2011 to 2012. However, before Iran could take any such action, the situation eased. In 2018, after the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed severe sanctions on Iran, causing a period of heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the shadow of closing the strait reappeared. On July 19, 2019, Iran seized a British-flagged oil tanker passing through the region in retaliation for the UK's seizure of its vessel. Additionally, Iran shot down an American unmanned reconnaissance drone, claiming that it had intruded into its airspace.

Therefore, despite there being no precedent for the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz in history, the ongoing Iran-Israel war is expected to cause disruptions in global oil trade. Some shipping companies have requested that vessels exercise caution when passing near Iran's coast.

Transportation delays and rising costs may also push up oil prices. Brent crude oil, a global benchmark, briefly surged but has since stabilized, closing at $77.01 per barrel. Oil prices rose by about 3% after Israel struck Iran.

Alternative maritime routes are inconvenient, but overland pipelines may help overcome some challenges. These pipelines include those operated by Saudi Aramco, owned by Saudi Arabia, as well as those run by the UAE. Iran also operates the Goreh-Jask oil pipeline and the Jask export terminal on the Gulf of Oman.

Since 2022, the volume of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased slightly due to policies by OPEC+ member states to reduce crude oil production. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains central. According to a brief from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Saudi Arabia transports the largest amount of crude oil and related products through the Strait of Hormuz. Over 80% of the oil supplied via the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian ports.

India's oil supply heavily relies on this region, with approximately 40% of its crude oil imports and 54% of its liquefied natural gas imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz. India's oil exports may also be affected by regional conflicts, and domestic demand will be prioritized in case of supply shortages. India's Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Hardeep Singh Puri, pointed out that out of the 5.5 million barrels of oil consumed daily in India, 1.5 million barrels pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

With the turmoil in West Asia, all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz.

The article was published on The Hindu website on June 22, titled "Strait of Hormuz: A Strait in Peril," written by Sruthi Balaram.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519054266431029797/

Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's personal views. Please express your opinions by clicking the 'Like' or 'Dislike' buttons below.