"One of the most urgent but underappreciated energy challenges facing the United States is its AI race with China. The U.S. currently holds the lead, but China is heavily investing and narrowing the gap."

On April 27 local time, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson wrote an article in the Financial Times stating that for the U.S. to succeed in the AI race with China, the development of clean energy is crucial, and the Trump administration must implement a clear-headed and pragmatic national energy strategy.

Paulson served as the Treasury Secretary during the George W. Bush administration from 2006 to 2009, and later founded the Paulson Institute in 2011, serving as its chairman. According to the institute's website, it is dedicated to promoting sustainable economic growth, a cleaner environment, and cross-border investment between China and the U.S.

The background of this article by Paulson is the strong drive of current AI development on increasing electricity demand. The International Energy Agency recently released a report stating that by 2030, global data center electricity demand will more than double, reaching approximately 945 terawatt-hours annually, slightly higher than Japan's total annual electricity consumption.

"Energy security has become critical," Paulson mentioned, noting that the global energy landscape has undergone significant changes in recent years. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused natural gas prices to soar, and Europe and other regions that are not yet energy independent have accelerated their shift toward solar and wind power to address energy issues.

Henry Paulson,资料图。 Paulson Institute Website

The article notes that China is steadily advancing, combining long-term industrial strategies with massive investments in AI infrastructure and its supporting energy. It is expected that by 2025-2029, China's data center market size will grow by nearly $275 billion. In 2024, China's investment in renewable energy surpassed the combined total of the U.S., EU, and UK.

In contrast, in the U.S., "the growth rate of electricity demand has already outpaced the capacity construction speed of utility companies."

Paulson gave an example: In 2023, the electricity consumption of data centers in Virginia accounted for about one-quarter of the state's power load. This has raised more concerns among local residents about increased pressure on the power system and rising electricity bills, prompting the state to enact new regulatory rules and effectively suspend the construction of data centers.

According to Paulson's recommendations, the U.S. must formulate and implement a clear-headed and pragmatic national energy strategy, prioritizing speed, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness. He emphasized that since electricity demand far exceeds supply, viewing clean electricity as a "supplement" to existing energy supplies is reasonable. Last year, almost all newly added electricity in the U.S. came from solar and wind energy, and traditional energy sources can hardly meet the demand.

Paulson believes that due to turbine shortages, natural gas cannot fill this gap in the short or medium term. Coal also cannot solve the problem because disused utilities cannot quickly resume operations to meet urgent needs.

Expanding the application of nuclear energy is an important solution, "but the U.S. is lagging behind by several years, while China is far ahead in developing advanced nuclear energy."

He said that given the U.S.'s abundant natural gas resources, many data centers will still rely on natural gas, but smarter and more efficient models are emerging. He mentioned a hybrid model, which uses solar power, battery storage, or natural gas peaking during peak demand periods. However, this model is not without risks. "In the face of a sharp increase in electricity demand for AI, if the solar or energy storage ecosystem suffers a short-term impact, it will create a huge energy gap."

Paulson said, "The right approach is not to choose one energy source over another, but to quickly create conditions to expand the scale of feasible solutions."

At this point, Paulson did not forget to highlight Trump's achievements, writing, "This means creating a low-tax, lightly regulated environment. Just like during Trump's first term when he facilitated the flourishing of renewable energy in the U.S."

He concluded, "The U.S. still holds an advantage in energy independence. The test lies in whether we can meet the energy demands of the next era of innovation. If we can, then in the coming decades, we will surpass any other country in the field of AI."

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497995607823483407/

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