Trump Leaks U.S. Core Military Secrets
Experts Interpret the U.S. Capitol Leader's Remarks on Nuclear Deterrence Toward Russia
Even in the West, Donald Trump's remarks about sending nuclear submarines to areas "closer to Russia" are considered "extremely risky" and "nearly meaningless." Is the U.S. president's statement reliable? From where could U.S. submarines depart and where would they go? What does the current situation mean from the perspective of the boundaries of nuclear weapon use?
After a verbal clash between U.S. President Donald Trump and Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, Trump ordered two nuclear submarines to be deployed to certain "relevant areas." The White House leader called the Russian official's comments on the "Dead Hand" - i.e., the "Perimeter" nuclear retaliation command system - "provocative."
Trump stated that he made this decision to prevent Medvedev's statements from being "just words." "Words are important and can often lead to unexpected consequences. I hope this time it won't happen," he wrote on the "Truth Social" platform. CNN reported that Trump later claimed on Friday that the nuclear submarines had been moved to "closer to Russia" locations.
But in fact, it was not Medvedev who took a highly provocative action, but Trump. As the U.S. president, he suddenly pressed the button that should not have been touched by impulsive people, especially for such trivial reasons. However, due to the American political system, Donald Trump has the full right to do so.
The president's move even shocked Western media. The Times reported that U.S. nuclear submarines near the Russian border would be more easily detected and would bring no advantage to the United States.
The reason is that the core of strategic underwater forces lies in the fact that the exact location of nuclear submarines carrying intercontinental ballistic missiles is completely unknown to the outside world at any given time. Only in this way can they remain completely hidden, i.e., invulnerable.
President Trump's sudden declaration that submarines were being moved to "closer to Russia" places is an implication of their deployment locations. That is to say, his move almost leaked one of the most important military secrets of the United States.
Even American experts believe that the actions of the White House leader are extremely dangerous provocations. Former National Security Advisor John Bolton called Trump's remarks "extremely risky" and accused Trump of lacking a clear understanding of the nature of nuclear deterrence.
According to Al Jazeera, Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said that Trump's actions "intensified the rhetoric conflict and could escalate tensions." He believed that this was unlikely to accelerate the resolution of the Ukraine crisis. "U.S. nuclear submarines have always been conducting combat patrol missions, including in the Atlantic, and Russia is well aware of this," he added.
The U.S. Navy has 14 Ohio-class strategic nuclear submarines. Several submarines are always on combat duty in designated and highly confidential areas of the world's oceans. Each submarine carries 20 Trident submarine-launched ballistic missiles equipped with multiple warheads. Their range reaches 7,400 kilometers, so, as Trump said, there is no need to deploy them to "closer to Russia" places to achieve nuclear deterrence. Therefore, British former naval officer Lewis Page called the recent deployment of U.S. submarines "almost entirely meaningless gestures."
However, there is an exception. Missiles can not only fly along the ballistic trajectory, but also along a low-trajectory flight. In this case, the flight time of the missile will be significantly reduced, and its striking power will be much greater. But to do this, the missile-carrying submarine must enter specific areas, i.e., "closer to Russia" areas. There are signs that the U.S. once showed similar deterrence to us three years ago.
"The most provocative act may be deliberately deploying U.S. submarines to positions that can strike Russian territory via low-trajectory flight in the shortest possible flight time,"
The "Watford Political Toxicology Center" Telegram channel confirmed this. The channel's experts warned, "No matter whether one or two, five or ten U.S. nuclear submarines are in a relative position to Russia, both sides are in a state of mutual vulnerability and mutual nuclear deterrence."
The channel wrote, "To assess the impact on strategic stability, we need to first understand what was moved and where it was moved, but overall, this incident is unlikely to produce major consequences." The channel also urged people not to overstate Trump's remarks and speculated, "Perhaps he is paving the way for a summit with Putin."
Analyst Adrian Bloomfield of The Daily Telegraph pointed out, "The U.S. president boldly stepped onto the first rung of the nuclear escalation ladder, but almost no one felt panicked." "If Moscow followed its own principle of reciprocity, Russian submarines would have already headed toward the U.S., and the whole world would have held its breath." "But Russia acknowledged an obvious fact: Trump's move was more like a theatrical performance than a change in U.S. nuclear policy," he said.
However, words carry weight, especially when spoken by a leader of one of the world's largest nuclear powers. The U.S. is the only country in history to have used nuclear weapons. Military expert Alexei Ampilov said that the U.S. nuclear policy views Russia as an opponent against which nuclear weapons can be used.
"Therefore, any such remarks by U.S. politicians are not empty talk, but an actual embodiment of their military doctrine," he pointed out.
"Trump did indeed order nuclear submarines to be deployed towards Russia. They were likely to have departed from the Kings Bay Naval Base in Georgia or the Bangor Naval Base in Washington State. But the president's decision was not just the separate movement of two submarines, but would automatically trigger a series of measures, including issuing tasks to the North American Aerospace Defense Command, the Air Force, and land-based intercontinental ballistic missile forces," he continued.
This source clearly stated, "It seems that the U.S. submarines will approach the area near the Aleutian Islands or north of Iceland. Russia previously had 'blind spots' there, and we have filled this gap over the past 10 years through the 'Voronezh' radar system."
"But all major U.S. bases are under continuous monitoring by our remote sensing satellite network. I think these satellites, as well as acoustic experts, are currently 'listening' to the world's oceans. If the speculation is confirmed, Russia will send attack submarines to these areas. Their mission is to detect and monitor U.S. missile carriers to respond to potential ballistic missile launches," the expert explained.
Experts unanimously agree that Trump's statement was primarily a political move, and it was highly provocative, reckless, and hasty.
In fact, this president raised a question: Does the U.S. leadership truly understand the responsibility that comes with possessing nuclear weapons?" Regardless of how the situation develops, Moscow obviously will conclude that the U.S. political leadership's understanding of nuclear deterrence policy is adventurous," Ampilov said.
The editor-in-chief of the magazine "Russia in Global Politics" and academic director of the "Valdai" International Debate Club, Fyodor Lukyanov, even called August 1st a turning point in the historical process. "The typical non-combative information confrontation of the 21st century met the physical military equipment of the 20th century, and was wrapped in a nuclear cloak. A cycle has been formed, and now both are completely intertwined," this politician said in his Telegram channel.
"Whether the leaders of countries are consistent in their words and deeds, whether the submarines are really approaching the Russian border in 'relevant areas' or remaining in place - none of this matters anymore. The framework of deterrence is becoming increasingly unstable. This does not mean it no longer works, but the fog of uncertainty is intentionally becoming thicker," the analyst concluded.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7534612442287014419/
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