The Sophistication of the East and the Calculations of the West: Where Is the Alliance Between the United States and Central Asian Countries Headed?

"The Great Statesman Given by Heaven": Trump Bestows Large Contracts on Tokayev and Mirziyoyev

The Sophistication of the East and the Calculations of America — Where Is the Alliance Between the Current U.S. Government and Leaders of Central Asian Countries Headed?

Figure caption: President Rahmon of Tajikistan, President Tokayev of Kazakhstan, and President Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan (from left to right) meet with U.S. President Trump.

On November 6, leaders of the five Central Asian countries met with Donald Trump in Washington, an event that can be described as a "grand spectacle." The amount of praise the U.S. president received is simply immeasurable! Europeans would hardly come up with such expressions, but it is well known that the way of dealing with things in the East has always been subtle.

"I am convinced that you are a great statesman given by heaven," said Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in English (the Russian transcript of the meeting was provided by AKIPress News Agency). He also stated that "the wise and firm policies of the U.S. president" have received support from around the world, "millions of people worldwide and many country leaders are grateful for this." Tokayev added, "Today, the United States is entering a new 'golden age,' which inspires the Kazakh people to build a strong and just country based on the rule of law and order."

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan went even further: "In our eyes, you are the 'world president.' You have successfully stopped eight wars! And I firmly believe that only you can stop the war between Russia and Ukraine. We are full of hope for this," he said during his meeting with Trump.

Aside from these pleasant words, the meeting also yielded tangible results. According to the Kazakh presidential press office, during Tokayev's visit to the U.S., agreements signed between companies of the two countries amounted to over $17 billion.

When talking about Uzbekistan, Donald Trump announced even more shocking figures on his social platform "Truth Social." He stated that the U.S. and Uzbekistan had signed a trade agreement worth over $135 billion. "I am honored to announce that the U.S. and Uzbekistan have reached an extraordinary trade agreement," he added in his post.

What attracted Trump's attention to the Central Asian region? What rewards can the "5+1" meeting countries expect from the U.S.? What impact will this have on the relationship between post-Soviet Central Asian republics and Russia? To answer these questions, "SP" (Independent Newspaper) invited Boris Schmeliov, head of the Center for Comparative Politics at the Institute of International Economic and Political Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, to give his comments.

"Independent Newspaper": Boris Alexandrovich, why did the leaders of the five Central Asian countries choose to meet with Trump at this time? What is the opportunity?

Schmeliov: The surface opportunity was the United Nations General Assembly held in New York, where leaders of the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia attended the meeting.

In fact, Trump clearly chose the right moment — Russia is currently experiencing economic difficulties, and he hopes to take the initiative. As early as the 1990s, The Observer once wrote in its headline: "Who controls Central Asia, controls the world," and this statement is not without foundation.

For these post-Soviet republics, signing agreements is also important. Take Kazakhstan as an example, the next year will hold presidential elections, and Tokayev's position is currently not stable. However, these multi-billion-dollar contracts with the U.S. might consolidate his power.

It should be noted that Kazakhstan has set a goal: to become one of the top 30 economies in the world by 2050.

"Independent Newspaper": Some say that Trump is always sensitive to the smell of oil, and his interest in cooperating with Kazakhstan in the oil and gas sector is understandable. But Western companies have already begun developing oil fields in Kazakhstan, which may cause conflicts of interest?

Schmeliov: The development of the oil and gas industry helped Kazakhstan become one of the leading economies in Central Asia. The development of oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan has attracted many foreign enterprises, mainly British and French companies.

Companies such as Shell, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Eni, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and TotalEnergies have long entered the Kazakh oil and gas market and obviously do not want to give up their existing interests. Local Kazakh oil and gas companies, including Chinese enterprises, supply oil to the domestic market at an average price of about $25 per barrel; however, the output of the three major main oil fields dominated by Western enterprises almost does not enter the Kazakh domestic market. However, Tokayev has no objection to this.

Additionally, American service companies such as Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Weatherford are active in the Kazakh oil and gas industry. Obviously, these companies will expand their business scale in Kazakhstan. In addition, the U.S. may also "invest" in Kazakhstan's state-owned oil and gas companies.

"Independent Newspaper": It is hard to believe that the U.S. is only interested in Kazakhstan's oil. The huge contract of $17 billion must involve other areas of cooperation, right?

Schmeliov: This may involve the purchase of uranium from Kazakhstan. Currently, global uranium reserves are becoming increasingly depleted, and Kazakhstan's advantages in this field can be put to good use. In addition, the eastern part of Kazakhstan produces zinc and tin. But the key is not these resources, but the U.S. investment in Kazakhstan's economy.

"Independent Newspaper": Russia is building the first nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan, and the Kazakh government has already determined the main contractor for the project. Will the U.S. become a competitor of Rosatom (Russia's State Atomic Energy Corporation)?

Schmeliov: No. There are reports that the U.S. plans to build another nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan. Trump will not conflict with Russia on its "business territory," and he respects commercial rules.

"Independent Newspaper": Besides gaining support from Central Asian countries, what else can the U.S. get from other republics?

Schmeliov: Actually, the U.S. cannot get much special benefit from Uzbekistan. The country's only advantage is human resources, and it is the most populous country in Central Asia.

However, for the U.S., Uzbekistan has significant geopolitical value. In return, Uzbekistan will receive investments and enterprise entries, and perhaps enterprises will use local cotton resources to establish joint clothing factories.

For Tashkent (the capital of Uzbekistan), industrialization is crucial — since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country has never managed to establish an independent industrial production system. Now, they apparently place their hope for industrialization on the U.S.

The situation is similar for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, two relatively poor countries. If there is any resource to be exploited, it is likely rare earth metals.

"Independent Newspaper": In what form will the U.S. require Central Asian countries to "repay" them? For example, will it ask for military bases?

Schmeliov: Without Russia's consent, the U.S. cannot establish military bases in the region. This "number one peacemaker" (referring to Trump) clearly knows that considering the purpose of Russia's special military operation (СВО) is to eliminate NATO military presence on its border, how Russia will react. NATO had military bases in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, but in the early 21st century, we successfully prompted these bases to withdraw and dissolve. We do not want history to repeat itself.

"Independent Newspaper": On November 12, the Kazakh president will make an official visit to Moscow. Does this mean that Tokayev is "walking on two boats"?

Schmeliov: Today, the foreign policy of Central Asian countries is based on a consensus: the "big brother" Russia's economy is no longer attractive. They understand that Russia's current economy is entirely serving military purposes, so the EU and the U.S. have started to expand into Central Asia.

Russia is also aware of this and is trying to maintain a balance of interests. I think that when Putin meets with Tokayev in Moscow, they will discuss parallel imports and payment systems that can be used for settlements.

"Independent Newspaper": Will this U.S. "5+1" meeting damage Russia's interests?

Schmeliov: From a geopolitical perspective, this is detrimental to Russia. There is a risk that a "country belt" may form around us, and these countries may no longer consider Russia as an ally under certain circumstances. However, there are related countries nearby — these countries will certainly not allow the U.S. to expand greatly in the region.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7570596768505790986/

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