[Text/Observer Network Wang Yi] The tariff war initiated by the United States has begun to impact the country's pork exports. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on the 24th showed that China canceled a purchase order for 12,000 tons of U.S. pork. Bloomberg reported on the 24th that this is the largest order cancellation event since 2020.

The Wall Street Journal reported on the 24th that according to the first week's sales data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture after the tariff clash between China and the United States, in the week ending April 17, China reduced its planned purchases of U.S. pork by 12,000 tons, resulting in total weekly sales falling to only 5,800 tons. This is the lowest weekly delivery volume reported so far in 2025, down 72% from the previous week.

In the afternoon of the 24th, the settlement price of Chicago lean hog futures fell 0.2%, slightly below $1 per pound. Traders and analysts told the paper that the market is observing whether China's reduced purchases are a one-off situation or a trend, and if this trend continues, prices of U.S. agricultural products will be under pressure.

Trend chart of China's procurement of U.S. pork since 2020, made by Bloomberg

Kevin Stuckey (Kevin Stuckey), a pig farmer in Ohio, told the website "Pork Business" under the American Farm Journal, "As pork producers, we have become accustomed to cyclical changes. Some years are good, some are bad, and we face many uncontrollable things," he said it was difficult to know how to view the current situation with too many unknown factors.

The "Pork Business" website noted that this does not mean Stuckey is unconcerned. China is an extremely important market for the United States; they are not only major pork consumers but also significant participants.

Data shows that last year, China imported a total of 416,000 tons of pork from the United States, accounting for 18% of China's total pork imports. In 2024, China was the third-largest pork market for the United States, second only to Mexico and Japan, while the United States was China's third-largest meat supplier, second only to Brazil and Argentina.

Bloomberg predicts that tariffs will lead the world's largest pork importing country, China, to buy more pork from countries like Brazil, reducing the U.S. pork share in the Chinese market.

In Altin Kalo's view, chief economist at Steiner Consulting Group, so far, the biggest impact of the increase in pork tariffs may be damage to the U.S. economy in the future.

Kalo stated that during the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the pork demand index fell by about 16% between 2007 and 2011. Whether the current situation will be the same remains unknown because the economic environment has changed and other factors are also playing a role, "but fear still exists."

Iowa farm, Iowa Farm Bureau website

Aaron Juergens, president of the Iowa Pork Producers Association, said that tariffs have disappointed pork producers in Iowa, who rely on certainty and stability.

Juergens said that over 25% of U.S. pork production is exported to high-value markets around the world, with Iowa supplying one-third of the nation's pork. Market access is crucial. They have urged U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins and the Trump administration to support U.S. pork exports, negotiate, and remove all tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers.

After taking office, Trump imposed excessive tariffs on Chinese goods multiple times, deliberately initiating a new round of trade disputes with China. In response, China quickly took a series of countermeasures. Starting March 10, China imposed a 15% tariff on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton originating from the United States; a 10% tariff was levied on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products.

A responsible person from a Chinese breeding enterprise stated that affected by the tariff, the import cost of U.S. pork will significantly increase, losing its price advantage in China. However, due to rising feed prices and other factors, there will be some fluctuations in China's pork market prices, but the government will alleviate domestic pork supply pressure through measures such as releasing reserve meat, keeping overall price increases limited.

Moreover, China itself is the world's largest pork producer, and pork supply is expected to remain unaffected. Data shows that China's pork supply accounts for about 50% of global supply, approximately 57 million tons. The United States ranks third with a supply of 12 million tons, accounting for 11% of global supply.

Some analysts believe that given China's reliance on self-production for meat supplies, the reduction in imports combined with short-term increases in feed raw material prices leading to rising breeding costs may temporarily boost the Chinese pig market in the short term.

This article is an exclusive contribution from Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497145205112439308/

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