Source: Global Market Express

The struggle investors face in predicting the unpredictable policies of U.S. President Donald Trump has driven Wall Street banks' trading business to a historical record in the first quarter. However, when industry leaders look ahead, they have neither good answers nor much optimism about what lies ahead.

The earnings season kicked off on Friday with three major American banks, with words like "uncertainty," "unknown," and "volatility" repeatedly appearing. It's not just the economic situation that is unclear and unpredictable; Western economic and military alliances will remain stable or not—these are greater questions, as stated by Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, during a conference call.

As the largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase surprisingly set aside $973 million for bad debt provisions, exceeding analysts' expectations by more than 40%. Dimon said that the bank holds capital above regulatory requirements and has ample liquidity, "enough to weather any storm."

"Perhaps next quarter when we hold another conference call, we won't have to guess anymore," he said.

The profits of these three banks—JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley—exceeded market expectations, followed by descriptions of increasingly tense consumer and corporate behavior patterns.

Trump's chaotic tariff decisions, along with efforts to streamline or even close some government agencies to release America's growth potential, have raised concerns about trade, inflation, unemployment, and potential economic recessions. Bank executives said companies are pausing expansion plans, including lucrative merger and acquisition deals typically involving Wall Street investment banks.

When asked by analyst Mike Mayo whether multinational corporations like JPMorgan Chase should worry about being caught in a dilemma in a trade war, Dimon responded, "We will be targets, and that's what will happen. But it doesn't matter."

Charlie Scharf, CEO of Wells Fargo, said that the San Francisco-based bank supports government efforts to break down trade barriers but also pointed out that this is increasing risks for businesses. "A timely solution favorable to the U.S. would benefit businesses, consumers, and markets," Scharf added, noting that Wells Fargo "is preparing for a slower economic environment in 2025."

Several executives said that for now, consumers are still sticking to their usual spending habits, although some are accelerating purchases of certain goods to cope with the impending impact of tariffs.

"If the labor market remains strong, consumer credit conditions may not be a big problem," said Jeremy Barnum, CFO of JPMorgan Chase. "But if not, the results will show up as usual."

Analysts also asked some executives about recent fluctuations in the bond market, which were one of the reasons why Trump decided to suspend many tariffs for 90 days to allow negotiations. When Barnum said the bank was certainly keeping an eye on all of this, Dimon interjected, "Every minute."

Read more: JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon: U.S. bond market will see chaos, prompting the Fed to act

Ted Pick, CEO of Morgan Stanley, told analysts that stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets showed that investors are adjusting their expectations for the economic outlook.

"For the past three years, we've been discussing 'the end of history,' meaning the long-term trend of politics and economy moving toward globalization is coming to an end," he said. "Now history begins again. Along with it comes an adjustment period where the future will necessarily be harder to predict."

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