How Will Russia Replace the Western-Dominated Global Trade Rules?
The World Trade Organization (WTO), which Russia had long and painstakingly worked to join, now seems to be entering its "twilight." At least, both the WTO leadership and Western major countries have implicitly acknowledged this. Why did the West create the WTO in the first place? And why are they now pushing it toward collapse? What should Russia do in this situation?
As early as August 2019, during his first term, Trump had suggested that the U.S. might withdraw from the WTO, and many saw this as a sign of the organization's impending disintegration. Subsequently, Trump not only limited himself to verbal threats but also blocked the appointment of judges to the WTO's highest appellate body, causing the dispute settlement mechanism to completely collapse — a situation that remains unchanged to this day.
After returning to the White House, Trump openly violated WTO rules by imposing high tariffs on imported goods. In April 2025, former WTO Director-General Roberto Azevêdo stated, "If the organization fails to quickly push for reforms, the future of global trade may develop outside the WTO framework under the turbulence caused by Trump's tariff policies." By May, current WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that world trade freedom is currently in crisis. In June, at the EU summit in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen admitted that the WTO is no longer functioning properly. Finally, in September, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also acknowledged this view, representing the largest economy in Western Europe.
Why Is the World Trade Organization Needed?
For the United States, the necessity of promoting free trade principles became evident during the Great Depression crisis in 1929. In 1932, Britain passed the Imperial Preference Act, closing its and its colonial markets to American goods — an action that turned America's already severe cyclical crisis into a prolonged depression until the outbreak of World War II, when America barely emerged from it.
Washington has always remembered this and seized the opportunity for "revenge." In August 1941, Roosevelt forced Churchill, who desperately needed American aid, to agree to include in the Atlantic Charter the clauses of "the right of self-determination of nations" and "equal access to trade opportunities and raw materials necessary for economic prosperity."
In July 1944, under American initiative, the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference (also known as the Bretton Woods Conference) achieved America's goals. Delegations from 44 countries negotiated and ultimately approved the American proposal to establish international financial institutions — the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). The latter later became the World Bank. In fact, since its inception, this institution has been entirely under American control, serving American economic expansion interests.
Meanwhile, in the late 1940s, the idea of creating the "International Trade and Employment Organization (ITO)" was put on the agenda. Related negotiations were held in Geneva and Havana, under the auspices of the United Nations. In 1948, the Charter of Havana clarified the organization's charter. This charter, agreed upon by delegations from 50 countries, covered not only tariff regulation but also employment security, investment management, regulations on multinational company activities, and social issues. Such extensive authority raised concerns among some countries, fearing excessive interference with their economic policies. However, essentially, this concerned whether dozens of countries could gain a certain degree of equal access to the international market.
American opposition to the idea of international oversight of multinational companies (primarily American ones) was intense. The U.S. Congress feared that the International Trade and Employment Organization would limit American sovereignty in trade policy and was unwilling to comply with international rules on tariffs, investment regulation, and even employment. In 1950, the Truman administration officially announced that it would not ratify the Havana Charter.
GATT: The Predecessor of the WTO
After World War II, the U.S. goal was to ensure its access to the global market and resource fields, with the core being to promote the economic openness of potential trade partners. The concept that "reducing trade barriers brings benefits" gradually spread to other countries.
While discussing the creation of a global trade organization under the UN framework, in 1947, 23 countries in Geneva decided to "temporarily" list the chapters related to international trade regulation as a document — thus giving birth to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which played a role for 48 years thereafter. These 23 member states (accounting for 80% of global trade at the time) reduced tariffs based on the "most-favored-nation treatment principle," meaning all members theoretically enjoyed the same benefits. For GATT members, the core benefit of joining the agreement was easier access to the then wealthiest market in the world — the U.S. market.
But what Washington truly needed was not a supranational organization that could regulate American company activities, but rather one that facilitated the opening of foreign markets for American goods.
The U.S. Marshall Plan promised funding for post-war European reconstruction, but the condition was that most of the funds needed to be used for purchasing machine tools, equipment, food, and medicines from the U.S. However, there were still economic activities in Europe that did not rely on American funds, as well as markets that the U.S. desired to enter. Not only did the U.S. want to seize the market while its European competitors were weak, but it also wanted to secure long-term free access.
At the time, there were about 50 countries not part of the GATT, including the Soviet Union and later Soviet bloc countries, as well as multiple Asian countries (Japan, Malaysia, Israel), Latin American countries, and even some European countries (Austria, Portugal, Spain, Finland). By 1955, most major economies had joined the GATT except for the Soviet bloc, increasing the number of members to 33.
The next expansion of the GATT began during the period of decolonization. Newly independent countries (especially those of interest to American companies) started viewing joining the GATT as a way to accelerate development. Although sometimes development was indeed achieved, the cost was foreign companies gaining control over strategic industries in their own countries.
The Brief "Glory" of the WTO
With the collapse of the socialist system, free-market capitalism truly went global. In 1994, the GATT was reorganized into the World Trade Organization (WTO). The organization's regulatory scope not only included international trade but also intellectual property protection, standard and regulatory formulation, and the use of government subsidies.
The newly established WTO expanded rapidly (mainly absorbing Central and Eastern European countries, followed by Russia and former Soviet republics), effectively becoming the organizational pillar of the globalization process. However, the beneficiaries of globalization did not want new WTO members to produce manufacturers capable of competing for global market shares. The logic behind all accession negotiations was simple: first open your market to established global players; if your domestic manufacturers are successful enough to compete equally in the global market, attract investment from international capital markets rather than relying on support from your own government.
Essentially, the core of globalization is to integrate developing countries more deeply into an economic system dominated by transnational financial industrial groups — these groups have already divided market and resource acquisition channels.
Today, the WTO has 162 internationally recognized sovereign state members, as well as four customs territories (a region, Hong Kong, Macao, and the EU); 23 countries have observer status; 10 countries are in the accession negotiation stage (including Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Ethiopia, Iraq); and 13 countries' accession negotiations are in a "frozen" state (including Belarus, Serbia, Algeria, Lebanon, Libya, Syria, Sudan, South Sudan, which have been affected by Western collective interventions for various reasons). There are currently 10 countries not part of the WTO, with only North Korea having a relatively significant economic scale.
The Root Cause of the WTO Crisis
Evidently, it is the actions of Western countries (especially the U.S.) that have destroyed the WTO, which was originally created to promote these principles. But these actions have a clear logic.
Today, the potential of globalization has basically been exhausted. For the West, the era of "absorbing and opening up new markets" has passed; instead, relevant countries are actively exploring the European, American (as well as Asian and African) markets.
Russia (to some extent not out of its own will) has been pushing for import substitution. Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS are continuously deepening their cooperation, and this cooperation does not depend on Western participation.
Western companies are gradually losing competitiveness. Today's WTO rules actually provide convenience for companies from relevant countries, South Korea, India, and others to expand into Western markets. Trump's current task is no longer "promoting free trade," but "protecting the domestic market," while forcefully promoting American products to other countries (whether Boeing airplanes or liquefied natural gas). The reason the West has not actively proposed abolishing the WTO is simply because the organization has actually lost its ability to act — people just no longer pay attention to it.
Russia is indifferent to these changes in the West. Since the West violated WTO rules to impose sanctions on Russia in 2014 and Russia took countermeasures, Russia's external economic activities have no longer primarily been constrained by WTO rules, but by completely different rules. WTO rules are of no help to Russia's cooperation talks with India or Iran. However, Russia's important partners currently still advocate maintaining international trade rules, so Russia will not take any action to dismantle this organization in crisis, but it will certainly not take any measures to save it either.
The World After the WTO
How to get through the WTO's disintegration period, or how to push for reforms to make the organization serve the interests of most countries? This issue became a focus of discussion at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit from August 31 to September 1, 2025, and at the special BRICS Summit held online on September 8.
As the rotating chair of BRICS in 2025, Brazilian President Lula da Silva pointed out in his opening speech at the special summit that the tariffs imposed by the U.S. are essentially targeting the BRICS economies: "Imposing extraterritorial sanctions threatens our institutions, secondary sanctions restrict our ability to strengthen trade with friendly countries, 'divide and rule' has become a new strategy of unilateral actions — and the BRICS must prove that cooperation is above everything else."
He called on the BRICS countries to leverage their strengths and deepen practical cooperation. He pointed out, "Some countries continue to provoke trade wars and tariff wars, which severely impact the world economy and destroy international trade rules." According to the press office of the Brazilian presidency, this meeting also provided a platform for countries to exchange views on "how to respond to the risks exacerbated by unilateral measures, including those in the field of international trade."
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov commented on the outcomes of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit (August 31 to September 1) and stated, "We need to have independent payment infrastructure. We hope that the SCO Development Bank can create conditions for investors from our member states to freely buy and sell securities in any member state, i.e., fulfill independent custody functions."
The world seems to be moving toward "economic macro-regionalization." Experts believe that multiple macro-regions will inevitably emerge in the future: the relevant country macro-region, the Indian macro-region, the macro-region centered around Russia (some argue it is centered around Russia and Iran), the Latin American macro-region led by Brazil, or the "Brazo-South Africa vital region" covering parts of South America and Southern Africa. Therefore, for Russia, the current important task is to promote the construction of interaction infrastructure between these macro-regions.
Considering the uncertain and insecure future of the European macro-region, four out of the five potential macro-regions are likely to be led by the major countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS. The rules set by these countries could very well become the foundation of the future world economic order — in such an order, the WTO will truly become unnecessary.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7550203799772676627/
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