Reference Message Network reported on April 15 that the German Die Welt website published an article titled "A World Without America? The Prospect of a New Global Order" on April 12. The author is Tobias Kaiser. The following are excerpts from the article:

In the past few days, Trump's unpredictable policies on tariffs have caused fluctuations in global stock markets. Its long-term consequences will only become apparent in months or even years. Globalization may stall, but it could also gain a completely new impetus. In any case, countries around the world are asking themselves today what they would do if they had to let go of the United States.

The situation in 1985 was similar to now. Whether cars or televisions, "Made in America" products were almost ignored in markets outside the U.S. American consumers and businesses were purchasing goods from Europe and Asia. The trade deficit reached a record high.

At that time, Reagan, especially the U.S. Congress, was unwilling to tolerate this situation any longer. They threatened to impose import restrictions on countries with "unreasonably high trade surpluses" and discussed imposing punitive tariffs on Japanese-made semiconductors. They even pressured Germany to appreciate the Deutsche Mark for security guarantees.

The pressure worked. On a Sunday in 1985, the finance ministers and treasury officials of the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Japan, and West Germany met at the Plaza Hotel on Fifth Avenue in New York to agree on a comprehensive devaluation of the dollar, which had sharply appreciated in previous years.

It turned out that the intervention measures agreed upon by the five countries in the foreign exchange market were successful. The dollar depreciated significantly, Germany and Japan accepted appreciation of their currencies, and Washington abandoned trade barriers.

Now, the world is still at least 90 days away from reaching such solutions. Trump has set this grace period. Germany, the European Union, China, and virtually all other countries must respond to this to avoid sliding into a global trade war. Their difficulty lies in the fact that they all rely on the United States. Gabriel Felbermayr, director of the Austrian Institute of Economic Research, said: "If the United States departs from the global economy, then the global economy will cease to exist."

The United States is the most important export market for EU goods, and American banks, insurance companies, film studios, and software companies are very active in transatlantic service trade. Moreover, transatlantic capital ties are also close. Americans invest in factories, data centers, and research institutions across Europe.

Most importantly: The dollar is the main global currency. 57% of foreign exchange reserves are in dollars, and most cross-border transactions are settled in dollars. Although the importance of the dollar in these two areas has declined in recent years, no country is willing to voluntarily devalue its foreign exchange reserves. Rolf Langhammer, an economist at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, said: "This is the biggest headache for Trump. He claims that foreign countries are plundering the wealth of American citizens through trade deficits, while at the same time, as a debtor nation, the U.S. still has to pay interest on a large amount of U.S. Treasury bonds held by foreign central banks."

Although many countries will soon negotiate tariffs with Trump, Berlin, Brussels, and other national capitals have already discussed what a global free trade system without U.S. participation might look like.

André Sapir, a senior researcher at Bruegel, said: "The EU and other trading countries must develop a trade order that can operate temporarily without U.S. involvement and withstand attacks from the U.S."

This economist has been studying trade policy since the 1970s. He believes that the vast majority of countries want to maintain the existing system established by the U.S. after World War II. This system is mainly based on two principles: all countries, strong or weak, must follow multilaterally agreed-upon rules, and in principle, all countries can participate.

Sapir said: "Major countries need to declare that they do not agree with the actions of the U.S. and will continue to abide by existing rules and principles." He has a clear vision: the EU and China, as the two major trade giants, must act as new stabilizers, and this group should also include wealthy countries like Canada and the UK, as well as emerging industrial nations like India and Brazil.

Felbermayr also recommended new allies to Europeans. He said: "Trump can easily win a trade war against Colombia, Germany, or South Korea. But the U.S. has no chance of winning against a coalition of major trading nations."

Langhammer, however, focused on Japan and South Korea, as well as Canada and Mexico. "They might be able to form a like-minded camp with the EU to counter Trump."

In this trade dispute, China has responded more strongly than any other country to Trump. To what extent China can be integrated into this new order depends on China's own actions.

(Translated by Wang Qiang)

On April 2, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order regarding so-called "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House in Washington. (Photo by Hu Yousong)

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493487920913973801/

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