【By Observer News, Wang Yi】The U.S. President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending reform bill was narrowly passed by the Senate on July 1st local time by a single vote, which includes a $15 billion defense budget. The South China Morning Post in Hong Kong wrote on the 3rd that as the Chinese Navy fleet expands rapidly and its commercial shipbuilding capacity continues to lead, the Trump administration is considering allocating most of this defense budget to the U.S. Navy for shipbuilding.

However, John Bradford, Executive Director of the Yokosuka Asia-Pacific Research Committee and a retired U.S. Navy officer, pointed out that no matter how much investment there is, shipbuilding and expanding capacity take time, and now it's already too late for the United States to invest in shipbuilding to expand its fleet and hinder the mainland's unification of Taiwan.

Regarding the U.S. repeatedly hyping up the "China threat" and increasing defense spending to enhance so-called "deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region," the Chinese Ministry of Defense spokesperson has repeatedly responded that the Taiwan issue is purely China's internal affair, and how to resolve it is the matter of the Chinese people themselves, not to be interfered with by outsiders. The way great powers interact should not be a zero-sum game, and peaceful coexistence is the bottom line that China and the United States should jointly uphold. China's development does not pose a threat to any country, and it has never resorted to intimidation or coercion like some countries do. We advise the U.S. not to mirror China with a hegemonic logic and stop distorting China's legitimate actions with wrong concepts.

After Trump returned to the White House, he has consistently vowed to "revitalize the American shipbuilding industry, including commercial and military shipbuilding." On March 4th, he delivered a speech at a joint session of Congress, saying, "We used to build a lot of ships, but now we almost don't build any, but we will change all that soon." Subsequently, in April, Trump signed an executive order to seek the reconstruction of the U.S. maritime industrial base to counter China's global dominance in shipbuilding.

As part of this strategy, the Trump administration is considering allocating about $30 billion from its pushed-through $15 billion defense budget to build warships.

This bill was approved by the U.S. House of Representatives in May, but on July 1st, the Senate cut it, reducing the original $3.37 billion naval shipbuilding funds sought by the House to approximately $2.8 billion. Despite this, this sum remains the largest allocation under the bill. In addition, the bill also allocates $3.5 billion for modernizing U.S. naval vessels.

Although this budget plan appears ambitious, Collin Koh, a senior researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said that for decades, U.S. shipyards have been "gradually withering" and "stagnant," and domestic political issues have been "misconduct" towards the naval construction industry that should have been prioritized.

"So honestly, if you ask me about this budget, I don't think it's a panacea, and I don't think it will become the key solution to long-standing problems within the U.S. Navy decision-making circle," Koh said. The lag in the U.S. shipbuilding capability is the result of decades of institutional and strategic miscalculations. China has the ability to mobilize technological elements and mass-produce ships at competitive prices, while U.S. shipyards are not yet ready to match such production scale.

The Chinese Navy's aircraft carrier Fujian docked at a shipyard pier. Visual China

According to data from the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in 2024, the U.S. built only five large ocean-going merchant ships with a total tonnage of 76,000 tons, while China State Shipbuilding Corporation alone delivered more than 250 ships last year with a total tonnage of over 14 million tons. By tonnage, this has exceeded the total output of the U.S. shipbuilding industry since World War II.

The South China Morning Post pointed out that in the global commercial shipbuilding sector, China's market share has soared from 5% in 2000 to over 53% in 2024, with South Korea and Japan ranking second and third, respectively. However, their combined share during the same period has dropped from 74% to 42%.

China's strong shipbuilding capacity has also rapidly enhanced its navy fleet. A report released by the Pentagon at the end of last year stated that the Chinese Navy now has over 370 ships, including more than 140 major surface combatants, making it the largest navy in the world. In contrast, as of the end of last year, the U.S. Navy had fewer than 300 active ships, and this gap is expected to widen in the coming years.

The report noted that given the limited capacity of U.S. shipyards and ongoing labor challenges, analysts believe that simply increasing defense budgets is not enough for the U.S. to quickly close the gap with the Chinese Navy or increase so-called "deterrence" near the Taiwan Strait.

Facing actual capability deficiencies, the U.S. is also seeking cooperation with allies such as Japan and South Korea to build ships. Hanwha Ocean acquired the Philadelphia Shipyard in the U.S. at the end of last year and completed its first major contract for U.S. military supply ship repairs in March. When U.S. Navy Secretary John Richardson visited Japan and South Korea in May, he expressed a desire to expand cooperation with these two allies in the shipbuilding industry.

However, this move may face resistance domestically in the U.S. Koh said that the problem lies in whether these countries can actually get contracts, because the U.S. military might worry that transferring proprietary technology and other technologies to Japanese or South Korean shipbuilders could further weaken their competitiveness. "How this cooperation will be practically advanced may also involve clear technical and industrial concerns."

"Theoretically, the U.S., along with South Korea and Japan, could form an excellent shipbuilding alliance," analyzed Antony Wong Dong, a Macau military observer. But they have never helped the U.S. produce major combat ships like aircraft carriers or submarines. Therefore, South Korean and Japanese shipyards need some time to adapt, increase manpower and equipment to meet U.S. standards.

Wong Dong believes that if everything goes smoothly, the initial process will take at least three to five years, but "the U.S. is worried about the possibility of conflict with China around 2027, and (these countries' production readiness) may not be in place in time."

Another uncertainty, Wong Dong added, is that modern warfare is rapidly moving toward unmanned systems and multi-domain operations. Even if the U.S. increases its traditional naval system productivity, whether it can achieve a transition to unmanned system production in the short term is a big question.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522687960446321195/

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