【By Observer Net, Yuan Jiaqi】

Since Trump returned to the White House this January, the political influence of American tech leaders has obviously expanded. Many analysts believe that the public rift between Trump and Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, highlights the fragility of the alliance between tech elites and the "MAGA" faction led by Trump, but tech leaders may still profoundly influence the U.S. strategy towards China in the coming years.

According to Hong Kong media South China Morning Post, on December 12th, looking back at the past half year, besides Musk, a group of influential tech figures have established close connections with the White House and federal agencies, influencing policies in areas such as cryptocurrency, artificial intelligence, and defense. They have placed allies in key positions, such as Emil Michael, a former Uber executive recently appointed to a high position at the Pentagon, and David Sacks, a well-known venture capitalist who serves as the head of cryptocurrency affairs at the White House and the "artificial intelligence czar."

Hong Kong media quoted analysts saying that in the long run, this "fragile alliance" may weaken the U.S. advantage in the competition with China, or may cause the U.S. to miss out on overseas talent and become detached from the global market.

Kyle Chan, a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University, said that the breakdown of the "Trump-Musk combination" reflects deep-seated underlying contradictions between the MAGA forces and the tech right. Although both sides share goals on issues such as deregulation and abolishing diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs, their core demands have "fundamental differences, even conflicts."

This means that this "fragile alliance" may have counterproductive effects in the competition with China.

Kyle is also an affiliated researcher at the Rand Corporation, a U.S. think tank. He gave an example: "If the tech right aligns with the MAGA's anti-immigration stance, they may ultimately cut off the resources they need most in competing with China - overseas talent."

And due to the escalating tensions between the U.S. tech right and the populist right on trade, immigration, antitrust, and cultural issues, the cracks in the alliance are growing larger. According to Adam Thierer of the Washington-based centrist-right think tank R Street Institute, as the populist right gains more power, U.S. tech companies may again be driven away from the global market.

"This will weaken the U.S. leadership in the global technology field and allow China to play a more active role in shaping the future global technology market," he said.

On May 30th local time, Trump held a press conference at the White House to bid farewell to Musk. Screenshot

Joseph Gregory Mahoney, an American professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, East China Normal University in Shanghai, believes that American tech executives are now divided into two factions, one wanting to enter the Chinese market, and the other trying to defeat Chinese competitors - the latter being more consistent with the current strategy in Washington.

Adam Segal, Director of the Digital and Cyber Policy Program at the Council on Foreign Relations, also told the South China Morning Post that the tech right and the MAGA camp still have common positions on "defense procurement reform, resisting the EU and domestic regulations, and policy toward China."

Some analysts thus mentioned that as the U.S. tech industry becomes increasingly closely linked with the defense industry, the "tech hawk" may further intensify the containment of China in the future.

In the academic journal "American Studies" published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Shi Bowei, a lecturer at the Teaching and Research Department of the Zhejiang Provincial Party School, recently published an article stating that the deepening cooperation between U.S. tech companies and the defense department is a trend worth paying attention to.

He wonders, "Will U.S. tech leaders abandon their traditional stance of avoiding excessive involvement in international disputes, and instead take a more aggressive interventionist approach, even becoming fervent supporters of militarism?"

Shi Bowei wrote that the pragmatic and opportunist tech elites in the United States, their positions, influence, and political trajectory will largely determine the direction of the Sino-U.S. technological competition.

However, he also believes that the tense relationship between tech elites and the MAGA faction may ultimately weaken the efforts of the tech right to reshape U.S. politics.

Regarding the policy toward China, Shi Bowei pointed out that most of Trump's tech supporters advocate continuous pressure to curb China's technological development and push for further "decoupling" in high-tech fields.

Kyle agreed with this view and said that the collaboration between the tech industry and national security agencies will affect the U.S. attitude toward China.

"Not long ago, Silicon Valley regarded China as an invaluable business opportunity," he said, "now the situation is completely different, the 'China threat theory' has become the commercial driving force behind the collaboration between Silicon Valley and the U.S. defense industry."

It is not new for the U.S. government to suppress China's technological development. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly expressed its position, condemning the U.S. for malicious blockades and suppression of China's technology industry. Such actions seriously undermine international trade rules and severely damage the stability of the global supply chain. China has always firmly opposed this.

As China has consistently emphasized, the U.S. measures cannot stop China's technological progress, but will only encourage Chinese enterprises to become self-reliant and strong. In the face of the deep integration of the U.S. technology sector and the defense industry, and the continued calls from the "tech hawks" to contain China, China will always adhere to the principle of technological self-reliance and strength, and open cooperation.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526108586099868186/

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