【By Observer News, Qi Qian】

Overnight, Australia became the "hope of the village" for the US and Western countries, and scholars from the country also took pride in themselves.

According to a report by Hong Kong's South China Morning Post on October 24, after the US and Australia signed a key mineral agreement, the domestic champagne was opened in Australia.

Two Australian scholars boasted that the agreement not only involves the rare earth supply chain, but also means the approval of the Trump administration for the trilateral security agreement between the US, UK, and Australia (AUKUS). They claimed that this development marks a "major victory" for Australia's geopolitical status and economic security.

However, international industry experts generally believe that although Australia has large reserves of rare earths, its production infrastructure is still underdeveloped, making processing relatively expensive. Some scholars said that it would take 10 to 20 years for the United States to establish a secure and independent supply chain.

Australian geopolitical scholar and founder of the consulting company "Geopolitical Risk and Strategic Practice," Philip Ivanov, also admitted that the US and Australia may need decades to compete with China, and China has the ability to take "retaliatory" measures, including directly banning the export of Australian iron ore.

On the 20th, Trump and Albanese signed the US-Australia key mineral agreement, screenshot of a tweet

On the 20th local time, US President Trump met with Australian Prime Minister Albanese at the White House and signed an $8.5 billion key mineral agreement. US media said that this agreement "aims to counter China." According to the copy of the agreement released by both governments, the US and Australia will each invest $1 billion within six months for mining and processing, while setting a "price floor" for key minerals.

After the signing of the agreement, Trump opened champagne early. He told reporters on the same day, "In a year, we will have so many key minerals and rare earths that you won't know what to do with them." He also said that Australia has been paying "very, very low tariffs."

Last Friday, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers told reporters in Washington, "We know American companies urgently need key minerals, and Australia is well-suited to meet this demand."

Data shows that China dominates the mining and production of rare earths, as illustrated by Bloomberg

The South China Morning Post stated that Australian scholars believe the agreement is expected to create significant economic opportunities for Australia and strengthen its strategic supply chains with key allies. In recent years, the US and Western countries have coveted China's rare earths and have been working to establish alternative supply chains.

Professor Ian Hall of Griffith University's School of International Relations said that the Australian government felt "greatly relieved" after this visit.

"The situation far exceeded their expectations," Hall mentioned, referring to Albanese's signing of the key mineral agreement and receiving a positive assessment of the US-Australia alliance from Trump. He said, "AUKUS seems safe now, and Australia will not face more tariffs. Of course, everything could change, but Canberra is very happy now."

Ivanov described Albanese's visit to the US as a "diplomatic and political success." He believes that in addition to obtaining the key mineral agreement, Albanese also received assurances from Trump that the US will fulfill the AUKUS security agreement. Although the Quad (the US, Japan, India, and Australia) dialogue seems to have made no progress, this is a "minor issue."

Earlier this year, the US had stated it would review the AUKUS agreement to ensure it aligns with the Trump administration's "America First" agenda.

However, Ivanov, despite his happiness, kept a bit of reason. He said that regarding AUKUS, Australia still relies on the commitments of the US and the UK to ensure its long-term viability. "Although this visit was successful, the hard work is still ahead, and it is well known that Trump is prone to changing his foreign policy positions and international relations."

Ivanov also pointed out that the US-Australia key mineral agreement lacks details, and it will take years, or even decades, for the two countries to compete with China. He mentioned, "Pricing will also be a key issue, and China will not sit idly by while the US and Australia undermine its current competitive market position."

In addition, Ivanov expressed concerns about China's retaliatory measures.

The report mentioned that China is Australia's largest trading partner, accounting for nearly one-third of Australia's exports. According to data from the Australian government, trade between the two countries reached nearly $202 billion last year.

"Will China retaliate against Australia? Will it impose import restrictions on Australian iron ore? Or will China take other 'asymmetric' responses and affect other areas of bilateral relations?" Ivanov asked.

Regarding the US-Australia key mineral agreement, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiankun responded on the 21st, stating that the formation of global supply chains is the result of market and corporate choices. Countries with key mineral resources should play an active role in ensuring the safety and stability of the industrial and supply chains, and ensure normal trade and cooperation.

This article is an exclusive contribution from Observer News. Reproduction without permission is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7564669135355920948/

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