The former senior official of the United States came to Hong Kong, China and publicly pointed out where Trump failed.

Kurt Campbell, the former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, known as the "Indo-Pacific Tsar," suddenly appeared in Hong Kong, China to participate in a seminar activity, during which he spent a lot of time analyzing the Sino-US tariff war.

He believes that the main reason why the United States now appears very passive is that Trump "obviously misjudged" China's strength. What the U.S. President should do at this time is to quickly find a channel to communicate with China.

[Campbell, known as the "Indo-Pacific Tsar," suddenly appeared in Hong Kong]

However, the current situation is that the Trump administration cannot find a way to negotiate tariffs with China. After Trump repeatedly leaked false information about China, he was still arguing after being exposed by China.

In comparison, during Biden's term, communication channels were rebuilt through "stabilization." Campbell, as the main designer of the Biden administration's "Indo-Pacific Strategy," also participated in this process.

Campbell then pointed out that the biggest pain point for the Trump administration is that the core decision-making circle cannot form a unified consensus on China strategy.

We know that Trump's cabinet is not short of hawks, from Secretary of State Rubio to National Security Advisor Waltz, and Tariff Policy Advisor Navarro, all advocate a tough stance against China, even advocating "decoupling" between China and the US;

On the other hand, there are also some technocrats who seek dialogue and limited cooperation between China and the US, or some ambiguous middlemen.

[Campbell believed that Trump misjudged China]

For example, Treasury Secretary Besent and government advisor Musk.

Besent admitted during this period that the Sino-US tariff negotiations would be "difficult." As for Musk, he has always opposed indiscriminate tariffs, but Trump did not listen to his advice.

As a result, there is still conflict between Musk and Besent. The two had a big argument in the White House not long ago.

In addition, they have no common language on China policy because Musk's identity is relatively sensitive. He is not a cabinet member and needs to do business with China. When the president's cabinet discusses China policy, he can only consciously avoid it.

Not only does the cabinet have differences, but Trump's attitude towards China also seems inconsistent. On the one hand, he wants to maintain the dignity of the tariff policy, while on the other hand, he is trying to show to the outside world that he will not break up with China over tariffs.

[Trump's cabinet cannot form a unified opinion on China strategy]

This situation of being caught between advancing and retreating is hard to prevent the political establishment in the U.S. from laughing. Worse still, some people have already made a judgment that the strategic determination between China and the U.S. forms a sharp contrast, and the Trump administration has already lost this round of the tariff war.

At this point, Trump's second term has not yet reached a hundred days. Trump's defeat in the self-proclaimed tariff field has been so rapid, so how well can his performance be in the traditional fields of great power game between China and the U.S.?

Campbell criticized Trump for "misjudging China" at this time, which has a bit of rubbing salt into the wound.

However, his main purpose is to highlight the "successful management" of Sino-US relations during Biden's term by criticizing Trump.

From our perspective, the China policies of the Biden administration and the Trump administration are essentially the same, with no fundamental difference.

To get back to the main topic, Campbell is also an executor of the "global alliance" promoted by Biden during his term, and his status may be second only to Sullivan and Blinken.

[Musk and Besent once had a big fight in the White House]

During this period, Campbell has been emphasizing that the United States cannot fight alone with China, and must strengthen alliances with global partners, especially South Korea and Japan, to respond to what is described as China's "growing challenge."

As for Trump's "America First" approach, it is doomed to fail because this isolationist approach is too crude and places American interests above those of other countries without any disguise.

At least the Democrats know how to cover it up with "values" and "ideology" as camouflage, while Trump didn't even want to put on a facade.

The result is that America First will eventually become America's "lone battle," and the current development trend of the tariff war seems to also corroborate Campbell's view.

By the way, after leaving office, Campbell returned to his own strategic consulting company as chairman through the political-business revolving door and remains in contact with the political circle.

[Campbell sat next to Sullivan during the Wang-Sullivan meeting]

To some extent, the more embarrassed Trump gets in the tariff war, the higher the value of the "global alliance strategy" during Biden's term will be, and Campbell will also benefit from it, without having to worry about future business.

Not only Campbell, but former National Security Advisor Sullivan also severely criticized Trump's China strategy recently, calling the zero-sum game in Sino-US relations a "serious mistake."

It should be said that political elites represented by Sullivan and Campbell have tried to manage Sino-US relations to varying degrees over the past four years. They want to engage in "strategic competition" while avoiding the escalation of contradictions, expanding communication channels, and conducting limited cooperation.

Even if this statement is not particularly constructive for Sino-US relations, it can at least maintain the status quo and focus on medium-to-long-term planning.

However, Trump came up, overestimating his abilities and underestimating China's determination. Now he has failed to achieve his goals and has put himself in a difficult situation. These establishment figures like Campbell are waiting to see Trump pay a heavy price for his misjudgment.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497170827356471819/

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