October 25, 2025, Issue No. 1079
Duty Editor: Cao Yincang Lin Xila
Review: Ye Weijie Fan Jiayuan
Executive Editor: Chen Zhuo
Pakistan's foreign debt situation. Source: Reuters
"Nikkei Asia" reported on October 24 that Pakistan is seeking China's support to join the New Development Bank (NDB) of the BRICS countries in order to diversify its financing channels, but may face opposition from India. It is reported that during the International Monetary Fund/World Bank (IMF/World Bank) annual meeting on October 13-18, Pakistan's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb met with the Chinese Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min and expressed hope for China's support to join the NDB. According to sources, Pakistan officially applied to join the NDB in early 2025, and the relevant process is currently being advanced. According to regulations, a country applying for membership needs at least four of the five founding BRICS countries to approve it. Given the long-term tense relationship between India and Pakistan, India may not agree to Pakistan's application, but if Pakistan receives China's support, China may strive for the approval of Brazil, Russia, and South Africa. Some analysts believe that due to the funding delays and security issues facing "Belt and Road" projects in Pakistan, China is trying to spread risks through "multilateral loan institutions," so it may support Pakistan's joining the NDB.
NEWS
On September 19, 2025, satellite images showed China's latest deployment of military infrastructure east of Lake Pangong. Source: "The Times of India"
"First Post" and "Today's Business" in India reported on October 24 that satellite images show China is building a new air defense facility on the eastern shore of Lake Pangong in Tibet, which has drawn high attention from India. The facility is about 110 kilometers from the location of the 2020 Sino-Indian Galwan Valley border conflict. It includes facilities such as a command and control center, barracks, vehicle garages, ammunition depots, and radar positions. Analysts point out that the facility may be deployed with the "Hongqi-9" (HQ-9) long-range surface-to-air missile system and equipped with missile launch shelters with sliding or extendable roofs. It is reported that this shelter is suitable for transport, erect, and launch vehicles carrying surface-to-air missiles (Transporter Erector Launcher
NEWS
Purchase situation of Russian fossil fuels by various countries. Source: statista
The "Wall Street Journal" reported on October 23 that the U.S. is intensifying sanctions on Russian oil, significantly increasing pressure on China and India in terms of energy security and diplomacy. On October 22, the U.S. announced that it had included Russian oil giant Rosneft and Lukoil, along with nearly 30 of their subsidiaries, on the sanctions list, and warned that foreign entities cooperating with sanctioned Russian companies could also face sanction risks under specific circumstances. This move directly affects China and India, two major buyers of Russian oil. Data shows that China and India together account for about five-sixths of Russian crude oil exports, and in 2025, China's purchase of Russian oil accounts for one-fifth of its total crude oil imports, while India's oil demand is about one-third met by Russia. In India, the Modi government faces dual pressure in economic and diplomatic affairs. On one hand, the Modi government hopes to maintain cheap energy supplies to support growth, while on the other hand, it tries to gain tariff reductions and trade agreements by cooperating with U.S. sanctions. Harsh V. Pant, head of strategic research at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), an Indian think tank, believes that Modi may use this round of new sanctions to "regain face" and push for domestic adjustments to Russian oil policy and respond to U.S. demands. Analysts point out that whether India can reduce its dependence on Russian oil largely depends on the intensity of U.S. pressure on India and India's ability to cope with price fluctuations domestically. To this end, India can gradually increase oil imports from the Middle East, Latin America, and the United States to achieve a gradual transition away from Russian oil dependence. Another view is that India can purchase Russian oil through middlemen to circumvent U.S. sanctions. On the Chinese side, China condemned the U.S. sanctions as "unilateral and violating international law." Some analysts believe that Chinese oil giants may suspend the purchase of Russian oil.
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Source: "Coinage Report"
"Coinage Report" reported on October 23 that the Indian Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying that the central government had approved a military procurement proposal worth 79 billion rupees (₹79000 crore), covering equipment procurement projects for the Army, Navy, and Air Force. For the Army, the plan includes procuring the "Nag" anti-tank missile system (NAMIS MK-2), ground-based mobile electronic intelligence systems (GBMES), and high-mobility vehicles (HMV) equipped with material handling cranes, aiming to enhance the Army's strike and reconnaissance capabilities in diverse terrain conditions, as well as logistics mobility and heavy transportation capabilities. For the Navy, the procurement includes amphibious dock landing ships (LPD), 30 mm ship deck guns (NSG), advanced light torpedoes (ALWT), electro-optical infrared search and tracking systems, and smart munitions for 76 mm high-speed ship guns. Among these, the dock landing ships aim to enhance the Navy's amphibious operations, low-intensity conflict resolution, and humanitarian relief capabilities. For the Air Force, the planned procurement includes collaborative long-range target saturation strike/destruction systems (CLRTS/DS) to enhance the Air Force's capability to conduct remote intelligent strikes using high-autonomy drone swarms, representing next-generation network warfare capabilities. Additionally, on October 22, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh reported on domestic defense production progress, stating that the scale has increased to 1.5 trillion rupees (₹1.5 lakh crore), with private sector investment reaching 33 billion rupees (₹33000 crore).
NEWS
Map of the Kunar River. Source: WeChat official account "Dreaming of Confusion"
"The Times of India" and New Delhi Television reported on October 24 that Afghanistan plans to build a dam on the upper reaches of the Kunar River, which flows through Afghanistan and Pakistan. Mullah Abdul Latif, the acting Afghan water resources minister, posted on social media "X" that the project was ordered by the Taliban's supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, and the construction will be led by local companies. The Afghan Foreign Ministry has confirmed that the dam will be used to restrict the flow of water into Pakistan. The Kunar River is approximately 480 kilometers long, originates from the Hindu Kush mountains in the Pakistani part of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, flows through Afghanistan's Kunar province and Nangarhar province, merges into the Kabul River, then flows into Pakistan, and finally into the Indus River, serving as an important water source for Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Unlike the Indus Waters Treaty, the utilization of the Kunar River's water lacks current treaty constraints. Since taking power, the Taliban regime has vigorously constructed water conservancy projects to ensure food security. Among them, the ongoing Qosh Tepa Canal in northern Afghanistan has exacerbated water resource disputes between Afghanistan and countries such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and India is an important aid provider for Afghanistan's water conservancy projects.
NEWS
Burned vehicles during anti-Israel protests by the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP). Source: "Dawn"
Reuters reported on October 24 that the Pakistani government again banned the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) on October 23. The government issued a statement saying that the cabinet had unanimously approved the ban, and accused "TLP of participating in terrorism and violent activities." Not long ago, members of the organization clashed with police during a protest against Israel, resulting in five deaths. TLP then issued a statement rejecting the ban, calling it "unconstitutional, politically motivated, illegal, and authoritarian." TLP is a Sunni Muslim organization, founded in 2011, entered politics in 2016, and became the fourth largest party in Pakistan after receiving over 2 million votes in the 2018 elections. TLP mainly exerts pressure through large-scale gatherings on religious and political issues such as Gaza. In 2021, the party was banned by Imran Khan's government due to violent protests, and the ban was lifted within six months on the condition that the party stop using violence.
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M.K. Narayanan. Source: Online
The "Hindu" published an article on October 22 titled "India's Difficult Negotiations in a World Without Friends," pointing out that India's current diplomatic system is still deeply influenced by traditional diplomatic thinking from the mid-20th century, making it difficult to adapt to today's rapidly evolving global landscape. If India does not adjust its foreign policy in a timely manner, it may face serious consequences. The author of the article, M.K. Narayanan, is a former Indian National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal.
Since Trump returned to the White House, India has repeatedly encountered setbacks in multilateral and multi-party cooperation arenas, often playing the role of an "outsider" in major international issues or regional events, and its diplomatic "trust deficit" continues to expand, forming a sharp contrast with its status as the world's fifth-largest economy. Take the Gaza peace agreement as an example; the agreement is being promoted by the U.S., Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar, and India is excluded, and in the high-level celebration of peace, only the lowest level representative was sent, highlighting India's marginalization in Middle Eastern affairs. Similarly, in the "Z-era revolution" in Nepal, which is highly related to India's interests, India lacks presence and shows a passive posture in controlling the regional situation.
The current regional situation is significantly unfavorable to India, and external forces are weakening its dominance over the surrounding region. Including Turkey supporting Pakistan in the India-Pakistan conflict, Turkey playing an active role in the Gaza peace agreement, and Saudi Arabia signing a "Joint Strategic Defense Agreement" with Pakistan. Although the recent India-Pakistan conflict has partially eased India's security pressure, it would be short-sighted for India to be complacent because of the attacks by the Taliban on Pakistan. Under the leadership of Pakistan's military commander Asim Munir, the security threat from Pakistan to India will continue to rise, and India should strive to create a favorable regional security environment, treating war as a "last resort."
Additionally, in relations with China, although the two countries have made some progress recently, this is more about bridging differences, and cannot be compared to the Sino-Indian relations after Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi of India visited China in 1988. For example, although there is a growing tendency in India to downplay the 2020 Galwan Valley conflict, the border issue still exists, and there is a lack of openness in diplomatic and military interactions. At the same time, China is gradually enhancing its influence in regions east of India through enterprises, educational institutions, research centers, and the internet, building a new order dominated by China in East Asia and Southeast Asia. However, India has always found it difficult to understand China's diplomatic strategy, so it must be more cautious in dealing with it.
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Editor of this issue: Yu Jiaxuan
Reviewer of this issue: Jiang Yi Fan Jiayuan
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