On April 22, a terrorist attack occurred in the Indian-administered Kashmir region, shocking India. In response to this sudden situation, Indian Prime Minister Modi showed a tough stance, planning to retaliate with precise and heavy military strikes, aiming to make Pakistan's military pay a heavy price. However, the Indian government insisted that this was not a war but a "limited retaliatory strike." This logic may seem contradictory but reflects the complex considerations of India in geopolitical terms.

The Eurasia Times claimed that globally, retaliatory military strikes are no longer uncommon. The United States, NATO, Israel, Iran, and even the Houthi rebels have all responded to provocations in similar ways without triggering full-scale wars. India's current actions clearly draw on this model. The Modi government clearly stated that the goal of the military strike was not to provoke a war but to send a clear message through precise military action: any act of supporting terrorism will face serious consequences.

Pakistan interpreted India's retaliatory strike as a "declaration of war" and issued stern warnings accordingly. In response, Indians believed that Pakistan's ministers, prompted by the military, were making incendiary remarks in an attempt to portray Modi as a "hot-headed" leader lacking evidence, thereby reducing international pressure on Pakistan.

Pakistan claimed that India had no evidence proving its involvement in the terrorist attack. However, the Modi government insisted it had "irrefutable evidence," including indirect evidence from public sources, pointing to Pakistan's military provocation. Public opinion in India generally supported this position, believing that sharing intelligence details was unnecessary because safeguarding national sovereignty was the government's primary responsibility.

As early as 2016 and 2019, in response to terrorist attacks in India, the Indian side retaliated with military actions and considered this a precedent. This attack in Kashmir further advanced India's steps on the "escalation ladder," forcing Modi to adopt a tougher stance to defend national interests and provide an explanation for fervent Hindus.

We can expect that Modi's military response is not limited to short-term strikes but aims to cause "lasting pain." One possible strategy is to redefine the actual control line, targeting the occupation of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir territory.

Secondly, by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, India has demonstrated its intention to weaken Pakistan economically and socially. Military actions complement this strategy, aiming to undermine the Pakistani military's control over domestic power. To some extent, this leaves no retreat for the Pakistani army, forcing it to reach new agreements through military actions.

The Pakistani military was aware through its intelligence network that India's goal was limited strikes, not total war. Therefore, Indians believed that the heated rhetoric of Pakistan's ministers was more for domestic political purposes, attempting to divert internal conflicts by hyping up the "Indian threat."

Meanwhile, the Modi government had no intention of launching a full-scale war but aimed to maintain national honor and strategic interests through carefully calibrated military actions. Whether this would provoke a strong retaliation from Pakistan also became a hotspot.

Thus, we make the following judgment about the direction of this conflict: there will be reciprocal retaliation and counter-retaliation, but no large-scale war will break out. Modi needs face, while Pakistan needs to protect its territorial sovereignty. At this time, if the Indian Air Force can kill a few chickens on Pakistani soil, it might be the best result. Then, another ace pilot of the Indian Army will be worshiped by hundreds of millions of people, and Modi will consolidate his political status once again.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7501631311350743604/

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