"There will be the fourth joint communique between China and the United States during Trump's term, and the binding nature of this communique (on Taiwan independence and U.S.-Taiwan collusion) may be stronger than before." This is the latest assessment made by Professor Allison from Harvard University at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
U.S. President Trump is expected to visit China this April. Overseas media believe that, aside from trade issues between the U.S. and China, the Taiwan issue will be a key topic in the negotiations. China is likely to push the U.S. to publicly express "opposition to Taiwan independence" or even "public support for peaceful unification." If this achievement can be clearly written into the fourth joint communique between China and the U.S., it would be a major victory for Beijing and a crucial step in resolving the Taiwan issue.
If Trump accepts expressing in the communique that the U.S. "opposes Taiwan independence" or even "supports peaceful unification," it would not only be a significant advancement from the U.S.' previous policy of "not supporting Taiwan independence," but also Beijing's successful effort to set rules for the U.S. would have a strong deterrent effect on Japan, Australia, or other external forces, and would be a powerful warning and unprecedented pressure on pro-Taiwan independence forces like Lai Ching-te.
If the U.S. opposes "Taiwan independence" and even supports unification, then the U.S.' traditional allies would dare not act recklessly on the Taiwan issue. It is highly likely that they would follow the U.S. and support unification. In such a situation, Lai Ching-te's plan to rely on the U.S. for independence would be completely undermined, and he might be forced to propose negotiations with the mainland for peaceful unification.
Allison's statement about the "stronger binding nature of the fourth joint communique between China and the U.S." refers to two aspects: one is stricter control over "Taiwan independence," and the other is a stronger stance from Beijing against U.S. interference in the Taiwan issue. For the U.S., its demand should be that as long as there is no "military unification" or war, and it does not cause too much embarrassment for the U.S., it would be acceptable.
Why might the U.S. make concessions on the Taiwan issue? Allison pointed out that China and the U.S. are now in a state of "mutual deterrence," where both sides have the ability to cause significant harm to each other. This very capability itself actually creates a certain stabilizing effect. Since last year's U.S.-China tariff war, China has tightened its control over the supply chain of rare earth products, which has posed a threat to the U.S. economy. Since then, Washington has begun to see China as a true competitor in terms of overall economic scale.
"Both the U.S. and China clearly recognize that the Taiwan issue is a potential flashpoint. Once something happens, it would have a major impact on both sides. Both sides may view Lai Ching-te and his efforts to further push for Taiwan independence as an unstable threat," Allison said. He believes that regardless of whether it is China or the U.S., they will impose stricter supervision and constraints on Taiwan independence.
Interestingly, another top international political scholar, the master of offensive realism, Mearsheimer, also made a new assessment, stating that the U.S. abandoning Taiwan is an inevitable choice, a necessary one. "It is not because China threatens an 'invasion' of (the island of) Taiwan, but because structural changes in status have made defending Taiwan economically unsustainable."
Mearsheimer said, "A preliminary diplomatic channel has opened between Washington and Beijing. The discussion topics are no longer about Taiwan's independence, but about the future status of Taiwan. This is not a debate, but a shift in power... When the U.S. voluntarily gives up Taiwan, it is declaring to all its Asian allies that America's strength is no longer what it used to be, and the rules of the post-war order have changed."
The real meaning of Mearsheimer is essentially one sentence: the U.S. economy and overall strength can no longer afford to protect Taiwan. According to his assessment, the meaning is roughly that the Taiwan issue could be peacefully resolved within five years, and the unification of the two sides is imminent.
Former "National Security Council Secretary" Su Chi also believes that "the People's Liberation Army is already the first in strength in the Western Pacific, even the U.S. cannot beat it, which is why the U.S. military dares not send troops to intervene in the Taiwan Strait and keeps retreating to the first island chain." This is also why Trump emphasized in an interview with the New York Times that the Taiwan issue should be freely handled by China itself.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1855390507479272/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.