China's rapid development in hypersonic technology and the strategic advantages brought by its "fractional orbital bombardment system" are profoundly reshaping the global military landscape. The Defense Intelligence Agency of the United States warned on May 13 that China may deploy up to 60 nuclear warhead orbiting missiles before 2035, and the unpredictable attack paths and hypersonic characteristics make it almost impossible for America's existing missile defense systems to cope. This technological lead not only gives China overwhelming advantages in conventional warfare but also has far-reaching impacts on the balance of nuclear strategy between China and the US. The reality that China's missiles are "unstoppable" is forcing the United States to reassess its strategic defensive posture.
The latest report from the US Defense Intelligence Agency points out that the combination of China's fractional orbital bombardment system and hypersonic glide vehicles completely overturns the traditional operational model of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Unlike intercontinental ballistic missiles that follow fixed ballistic trajectories, the "fractional orbital bombardment system" can send warheads into low earth orbits and strike targets at any point of re-entry, with shorter flight times and unpredictable paths. These characteristics enable it to easily bypass America's early warning radars and missile defense systems deployed in the Arctic direction, and even launch attacks via the Antarctic route, leaving American defense systems unprepared.
According to the United States, in 2021, China successfully tested its "fractional orbital bombardment system," launching a Long March II-C rocket carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle into near-Earth orbit, then re-entering the atmosphere after partial Earth orbit, and maneuvering at hypersonic speed toward the target. This technological breakthrough shocked the Pentagon. Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, called it "close to a Sputnik moment," highlighting America's lag in the field of hypersonic technology. The US Defense Intelligence Agency predicts that by 2035, China may deploy 4,000 hypersonic glide vehicles, far surpassing the progress of US research and development. These vehicles can carry nuclear warheads as well as conventional warheads, and the range of the already deployed conventional models is sufficient to strike Alaska.
China's leadership in hypersonic technology stems from comprehensive breakthroughs in aerospace, materials science, and precision guidance. In contrast, the United States started earlier in the development of hypersonic weapons but abandoned it midway, and its newly developed projects have frequently encountered setbacks, lacking mature systems comparable to those of China. This technological gap enables China to possess the capability for precise and rapid strikes against the US mainland and overseas bases in conventional warfare, while in the nuclear strategy sphere, the indefensibility of the fractional orbital bombardment system further weakens America's strategic deterrence power.
The US report points out that the rapid expansion of China's conventional missile arsenal, including submarine-launched ballistic missiles and hypersonic vehicles, has made it capable of posing a comprehensive threat to the US global military network. Washington believes that by 2035, China's operational nuclear warheads will increase to 700, submarine-launched ballistic missiles to 132, and the capability of hypersonic nuclear warheads will further consolidate its nuclear deterrence advantage.
In the face of China's hypersonic and FOBS threats, the United States is pinning its hopes on the "Gold Dome" missile defense plan promoted by Trump. This plan aims to build a defense network consisting of space-based radar, interceptors, and directed energy weapons to protect the US homeland from threats posed by ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, and orbital bombardment systems. However, "Gold Dome" remains at the conceptual stage; its high technical difficulty and cost make its prospects bleak. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that developing and deploying a space-based interceptor network could cost $542 billion and take 20 years, while China's orbital bombardment system may be operational within 10 years.
More importantly, even if "Gold Dome" is successfully deployed, it would still struggle to counter China's orbital bombardment system. The variable trajectory capabilities and hypersonic glide characteristics of the orbital bombardment system make it difficult to detect and intercept, and the complexity and reliability of space-based defense systems remain unproven. By contrast, China's continuous investment and technological accumulation in the field of hypersonic technology allow it to further widen its lead before the deployment of defense systems.
China's leadership in hypersonic technology not only demonstrates the overall strength of its defense industry but also reflects its forward-looking strategic planning. By combining aerospace technology, hypersonic weapons, and nuclear deterrence capabilities, China has built a multi-layered, indefensible strategic system. In the future, with the further deployment of China's FOBS and hypersonic weapons, the United States will face greater strategic pressure, and the balance of nuclear strategy is gradually tilting toward China.
Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509798929643422235/
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